High Wind Watch 2, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS72 KMHX 051935
NPWMHX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...

.THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES AND 25 TO 35 MPH
ALONG INLAND COUNTIES.

NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104-061000-
/O.UPG.KMHX.HW.A.0002.070506T1800Z-070507T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.HW.W.0002.070506T1500Z-070507T1500Z/
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLUMBIA...NEW BERN...HAVELOCK...
ORIENTAL...ALLIANCE...BAYBORO...ARAPAHOE...MINNESOTT BEACH...
VANDEMERE...STONEWALL...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...EMERALD ISLE...
NEWPORT...KILL DEVIL HILLS...KITTY HAWK...NAGS HEAD...
SOUTHERN SHORES
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO
11 AM EDT MONDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS. COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER INCLUDING CARTERET COULD ALSO SEE WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. 

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

NCZ029-044-045-079-080-090>092-098-061000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.WI.Y.0010.070506T1500Z-070507T1500Z/
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-ONSLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLIAMSTON...ROBERSONVILLE...
GREENVILLE...PLYMOUTH...SNOW HILL...HOOKERTON...WASHINGTON...
RIVER ROAD...WALLACE...WARSAW...ROSE HILL...KENANSVILLE...
BEULAVILLE...MAGNOLIA...KINSTON...MAYSVILLE...POLLOCKSVILLE...
JACKSONVILLE
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 AM
EDT MONDAY. 

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
EASTERN CANADA AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 AM EDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR COASTAL STORM TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SOUND SIDE FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TODAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WEDGE PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AND HAS LED TO EROSION OF
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHERN
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TODAY
WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK DAMPENING
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND BRING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO EASTERN NC. MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
17 SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z TODAY. THE RAINFALL SHOULD END
BEFORE 18Z SUNDAY WITH AMOUNTS OF 1/4 TO UP TO 3/4 OF AN INCH
EXPECTED.

OF CONCERN IS THE PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW
PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST WHILE A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA PRODUCING STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL EASTERN NC WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW SOON A STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST CUTS OFF INTO
AN UPPER LOW LATE SUNDAY. THE SOONER THIS OCCURS THE MORE LIKELY
THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE GFS WAS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST THAN THE
NAM WHICH PRODUCES SFC WINDS OF 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
RETROGRADES THE LOW TOWARD THE NC COAST MON. THE UK MET WAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE 2 CAMPS WITH A STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST
LOW THAN THE GFS BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST OR CLOSE TO THE COAST AS
THE NAM. RIGHT NOW THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT
IN THE MODELS FOR US TO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN ISSUING A HIGH WIND
WATCH AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MORE
DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BUT COASTAL
INTERESTS SHOULD BEGIN TO PREPARE FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOUND SIDE FLOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...EARLY PORTION OF FORECAST
WILL DEPEND ON COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE
WESTERLIES AND COULD LINGER NEAR NC THROUGH WED. MAIN EFFECT WOULD
BE WIND AND CLOUDS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL SHOWERS AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
KICKED EAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...CURRENTLY VFR AREA WIDE. MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHERN AREAS BY 12Z AND NORTH LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
DARK. WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE
AREA OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...A VERY ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD COMING UP. A POWERFUL
SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROF
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN UPPER LOW WILL THEN CUT OFF JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CONSENSUS EARLY THIS MORNING TENDS TO FAVOR A
STRONGER NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE NAM BRINGS STORM FORCE WINDS
INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. I DO NOT WANT TO GO THAT HIGH
JUST YET SINCE IT IS THE 3RD PERIOD...PREFERRING TO KEEP IT JUST
UNDER STORM FORCE AND WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO. DAY SHIFT CAN EASILY
BUMP UP IF NEEDED. WILL CAP WINDS AT 45 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME DUE TO THE EFFECTS FROM THE STRONG COASTAL
LOW THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ046-047-081-093>095-103-104.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ093>095.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-
     135-150-152-154-156-158.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ152-154-156.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELARDO
LONG TERM...AUSTIN
AVIATION...ELARDO
MARINE...AUSTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
446 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-050900-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
446 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.