High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...RATHER QUIET TODAY AHEAD
OF APPROACHING LOW. MDLS SHOW MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE OVER REGION AND
EXPECT SCT TO BKN CLDS. SHLD BE ENUF SUN FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 INLAND
TO LOW/MID 60S OBX. AS FULL LATITUDE TROF APPROACHES
TONIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW PRES WILL TRACK NW OF THE AREA. VERY
STRONG LOW LVL JET OF 50 TO 60 KTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW. LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK WITH MARGINAL
INSTAB HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING EXPECT SOME TSRA TO DEVELOP.
ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS IT
TAPS THE LOW LVL JET...BEST CHC OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO START
AROUND 06Z DEEP INLAND AND END NEAR 18Z OBX.  DID NOT CHANGE POP/WX
GRIDS MUCH FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOOKED VERY GOOD. DID INCREASE
QPF BASED ON HPC/GFS WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY. BASED ON
WIND GRIDS UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH TO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR IMD CST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT N TO THE OBX. WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST ALL
OTHER COUNTIES ADJACENT TO WATER. FOR DEEP INLAND COUNTIES FEEL
GRDNT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS IN CONVECTION. WL KEEP COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH WARNING AS DURATION OF
STRONGEST ON SHORE WINDS S OF HAT IS RATHER SHORT. APPEARS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE ON SUNDAY SO WILL LET DAY
SHIFT LOOK AT 12Z MDL CYCLE AND DECIDE TO UPGRADE. DO EXPECT AT
LEAST HIGH SURF SO WILL PUT THAT UP FROM HAT S. COASTAL FLOOD THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO SOUND SIDE OF OBX SUN NIGHT WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS IN
WAKE OF DEEP LOW.

BEST CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY. COULD STILL SEE SOME SHRA POSS TSRA SUN AFTN AND EVENING AS
UPR TRF SWINGS THROUGH. IF WE GET A BIT OF SUN EARLY IN THE AFTN
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSS HAIL LATER IN THE DAY AS TEMPS ALOFT
RAPIDLY COOL. KEPT CHC SHRA IN SUN EVENING UNTIL UPR TRF SHIFTS
FURTHER E.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...GIVEN FOCUS ON SHORT TERM DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO
DROP POP NE SECTIONS MON AS ATMS DRIES OUT. WILL HAVE TO BE
CONCERNED FOR CONT OF POSS SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ON OBX THROUGH MON
WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...CONT VFR INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCT TO BKN HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG
LOW APPROACHES. LOOKS LIKE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. DID INTRODUCE PROB30 INLAND AFTER 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
TODAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
AS A STRONG LOW PRES APPROACHES THE WATERS. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND
15 TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S AND
REACH GALE FORCE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FREQUENT STORM FORCE GUSTS
NEAR WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...WHICH COVERS PORTIONS OF THE
OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT ZONES. RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL
MOVE JUST W AND N OF THE WATERS SUN MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NWLY.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE AFTER FROPA BUT GALE FORCE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NRN WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AND
EVEN INTO MON MORNING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW PRES IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT REMAIN INVOF NEW
ENGLAND WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING W-NWLY WINDS ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH TUE. THE LOW PRES FINALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE N
ATLANTIC LATE TUE AND WED ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ095-098-
     103-104.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ047-081-095-103-104.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ046-047-080-
     081-093-094-098.

MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ130.

     STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

SHORT TERM...FREDERICK
LONG TERM...FREDERICK
AVIATION...FREDERICK
MARINE...KENNEDY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
502 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-140915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
502 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED CLOSE TO THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ103-104-140915-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-OUTER BANKS DARE-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
502 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AM AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY
BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST. THE STRONG SOUTH WIND WILL LEAD TO
HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERWASH FOR THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES
SUNDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOUNDSIDE FLOODING ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-140915-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-
502 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY BY
SUNDAY MORNING AND WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL LEAD TO HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERWASH ALONG THE
SOUTH FACING BEACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.