Heat Advisory 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
906 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
NORTH OF THE AREA. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE WLL TRY TO BUILD BACK IN AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH MINS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. CURRENT FCST
DATABASE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY TREND CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED
DATABASE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
FOG...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN OFF
THE WATER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
LO LVL FLO TO RMN SW THRU AT LEAST THE MID OF THE WK WI BERMUDA HI
OFF THE CST AND SYS TO OUR N AND W. GFS APPRS TOO STG WI SYS...AND
BRINGS FRNT THRU CWA EARLIER THAN NAM. WL LEAN TWRD NAM TIMING.
NAM BRINGS FRNT THRU AREA TUE NGT WI A QUICK SHOT OF MSTR. HWVR
FCST SNDGS APPR QUITE DRY...SO WL KP POPS LO WI FROPA. HI TEMPS WL
CONT IN THE MID TO UPR 90S MON AND TUE. WL SEE TEMPS COOLG INTO
THE 80S IN NRN SXNS ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SE US WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER PREVALENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HPC HAS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
IN FROM THE NE FROM WHAT WAS DEPRESSION ERIN.  DIURNAL FORCED STORMS
COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTION. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STCU MAY ADVECT LOCALLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST BRINGING PATCHY MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING THE LOWER CIGS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES BUT OAJ AND EWN MAY SEE SOME SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 2K
FT THROUGH THE EVENING. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN LOW PRES ACROSS VA
AND HIGH PRES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NO NOTABLE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE FCST...BUT WITH INCREASED TD COULD SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...STRONGEST NORTH. DUCK HAD A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLIER BUT
WINDS HAVE RELAXED A LITTLE THERE AND AM NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING SCA
FLAGS AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO UPDATED
PLANNED.

PREVIOUS...MODERATE SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS TIGHTER
GRADIENTS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATER BETWEEN A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE.
CONFIDENCE IN MODELS CONTINUES TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL AS HANDLING
OF WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT VARY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS.
FOLLOWED THE 12Z NAM FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THIS FORECAST HOWEVER AS
THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A FEW CONVECTIVE FEED BACK
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ON TUE. THE NAM MAINTAINS WINDS AOB 20 KT ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS INCREASES WINDS UP TO
25 KT N OF HATTERAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO IF THE GFS VERIFIES SCA FLAGS MAY HAVE TO
BE RAISED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN WATERS IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAY.
IN FOLLOWING THE NAM...HELD OFF BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS
UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT INSTEAD OF TUE MORNING IN THE GFS. THE FRONT
STALLS S OF THE WATERS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING
IN FROM THE N BRINGING MAINLY E-NELY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. HIGH
PRES MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC FRI WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
SLY.

OTHER CONCERN IS SWELL FROM DEAN WHICH HAS BUILT TO 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS
THE WATERS TODAY. SWELL WILL BE MIXED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH MODERATE WINDS BRINGING ADDITIONAL WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THE
SWELL. WAVE WATCH BUILDS SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT ACROSS THE NRN WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK BUT HAVE CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT AS WE ARE FOLLOWING
CLOSER TO THE NAM INSTEAD OF THE GFS. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WAVE WATCH AGAIN BUILDS SEAS TO 6 TO 7 FT WITH ADDITIONAL SWELL
FROM A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH THE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM AND WILL UNDERCUT WAVE WATCH LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS WELL.

.RIP CURRENTS...LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE
COAST AND WITH INCREASED WAVE ENERGY COMES A GREATER RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. SWELLS HAVE INCREASED TO 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA