Freeze Warning 5, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
312 PM EDT MON APR 9 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FCST.  HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM NW TONIGHT INTO TUE. MODEL RH XSCTNS INDICATE CLEARING TONIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP LOWER TEMPS TONIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL ISSUE FROST ADVISORY
FOR INLAND COUNTIES AND WILL INCLUDE ONSLOW. MSTR WILL INCREASE TUE
NIGHT AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING
LATE TUE NIGHT TO SUPPORT LOW CHC POPS PER PREVIOUS FCST. WILL NOT
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST FOR WED. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL TO THE S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL AID IN MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. NORTHERN STREAM LOW SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR PRECIP IN THE UPPER CHANCE RANGE. WILL ALSO KEEP
SLGT CHC OF TSTMS FOR WED. WILL GO WITH UPPER RANGE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SFC LOW WILL BE DEPARTING
TO THE NE WITH PRECIP ENDING FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY THU. S/W
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA THU THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON FRI WITH CLOUDS/MOISTURE
INCREASING FRI AND SAT. NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH EARLY
FRI THEN VEER S/SE BY FRI EVENING. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S BOTH FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SAT WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING BY SAT EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TS ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED ON MON BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC HIGH PRES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SAT AND SUN THEN COOLING INTO THE 60S
ON MON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z-18Z/...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUE...GENERALLY HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY
OUT OF THE N....BECOMING NE LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS IN STORE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE
WITH LIGHT NW FLOW AND SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSELY TO THE GFS AS IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES OFFSHORE TO THE SE ON WED WITH A WEAKER
AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER SC. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E OVER
AREA WATERS TUE NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SE. THE SFC LOW
OVER SC WILL LIFT NE ON WED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH EARLY WED BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW TO THE SE TO ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WED NIGHT. S/W TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SE VIRGINIA WED NIGHT WITH
THE LOW RACING OFF TO THE NE ON THU. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE
NW DURING THE DAY WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FRI AND SAT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS ONCE AGAIN. A RETURN
TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
LATE FRI INTO SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUN
EVENING WITH OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND FRONT FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE HIGHER WINDS AS CAA DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-044-
     079-090>092-098.

&&

SHORT TERM...PRINGLE
LONG TERM...WINGENROTH
AVIATION...PRINGLE
MARINE...WINGENROTH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 AM EDT MON APR 9 2007

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-100945-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
536 AM EDT MON APR 9 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE
EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN A
FROST OR FREEZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ103-104-100945-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-OUTER BANKS DARE-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
536 AM EDT MON APR 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AM AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.