Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2007
Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued this flash flood warning at Sep 19, 2007, 11:58 AM EDT for Carteret County, North Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 19, 2007, 11:58 AM EDT (15:58 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 19, 2007, 2:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
- Flood severity
- Major
County Carteret County, NC
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 10 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 326 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -84 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 471 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -1 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 3 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS52 KMHX 191609 CCA FFWMHX NCC031-191800- /T.COR.KMHX.FF.W.0001.070919T1558Z-070919T1800Z/ /00000.3.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TEST...FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED...TEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1158 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A * THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A LEVEE FAILURE IN... CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 200 PM EDT * THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AT 1158 AM EDT...A LEVEE ON THE TEST 2 RIVER AT THE TEST DAM ON THE TEST ROAD FAILED CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS. * THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE. REPEATING THIS IS A TEST. LAT...LON 3473 7669 3476 7685 3480 7683 3482 7677 $$ 21
3 follow-up statements
000 WGUS72 KMHX 191613 FFSMHX TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1211 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... NCC031-191800- /T.CON.KMHX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070919T1800Z/ /00000.3.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CARTERET NC- 1211 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR CARTERET COUNTY... THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. AT 1154 AM EDT...A LEVEE ON THE TEST RIVER AT THE TEST DAM ON THE TEST ROAD FAILED CAUSING FLASH FLOODING OF IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE. LAT...LON 3473 7669 3476 7685 3480 7683 3482 7677 TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 180DEG 0KT 3478 7678 $$ 21
000 WGUS72 KMHX 191619 FFSMHX TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... NCC031-191629- /T.CAN.KMHX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070919T2100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CARTERET NC- 1219 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CARTERET COUNTY... THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE. LAT...LON 3473 7669 3476 7685 3480 7683 3482 7677 TIME...MOT...LOC 1619Z 180DEG 0KT 3478 7678 $$ 21
000 WGUS72 KMHX 191624 FFSMHX TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1223 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... NCC031-191633- /T.EXP.KMHX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070919T1630Z/ /00000.3.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CARTERET NC- 1223 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 ...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY... ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM EDT FOR CARTERET COUNTY... THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE. LAT...LON 3473 7669 3476 7685 3480 7683 3482 7677 TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 180DEG 0KT 3478 7678 $$ 21
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 19, 10:14 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 10:14 AM EDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES THAT HAS RIDGED INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN TODAY ALLOWING A COASTAL FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ASHORE TONIGHT AND REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NC
THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH SUN THROUGH TUE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SHORTLY. DUE TO
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THE FORECAST HIGHS. WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DONT THINK HIGHS WILL GO THAT MUCH FURTHER SO WORDED
FORECAST AS AROUND 80. REST OF FORECAST AREA LOOKS OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COASTAL FRONT ASHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND WHILE ONLY WEAK LIFT IS DEPICTED...CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO COASTAL SECTIONS WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
THE COASTAL FRONT REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FLIPPED ON THEIR HANDING OF
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GFS NOW MUCH WETTER THAN THE NAM.
THE GFS HAS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI WHILE
THE NAM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. WHILE THE GFS HAS
INITIALIZED BETTER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH HANDLING OF THE
LOW PRES OVER THE BAHAMAS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
RAISE POPS ABOVE CHANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE POPS AND NOT RAISING THEM ABOVE CHANCE.
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO IN MID 70S COAST TO UPPER
70S INLAND AND LOWS ABOVE CLIMO AROUND 70 COAST TO MID 60S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL FRONT DISSIPATES FRI NIGHT AND SAT BUT MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LIMITED FORCING. THE
TAIL END OF A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT WITH SFC
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SUN THROUGH TUE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME AMPLIFIED SUN AND
MON WITH LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S AND
A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPS WARMING ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS. STILL LOOKING
AT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS LIFT TO MARGINAL
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
COASTAL/BUOY OBS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW MARINE ZONES IN GOOD
SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ158.
&&
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSAHazardous weather outlook, Sep 19, 5:01 AM EDT, 6 hours 57 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 501 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-098-200915- MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT- MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW- 501 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ095-103-104-200915- CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE- 501 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ONSHORE WINDS...MODERATE SWELL AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 8:44 PM EDT | Coastal Flood Statement | MHX | 71 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2007Every flash flood warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.