Coastal Flood Statement 26, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
249 PM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLDFRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CARTERET COUNTY INLAND TO
CRAVEN AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THRU ABOUT 22Z.
WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POP VALUES INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD HPC QPF GUIDANCE WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE
1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS GETTING UP TO 4
INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY
FOR LOCAL URBAN FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD- PRONE LOCALES SUCH
AS JACKSONVILLE AND GREENVILLE. GFS MOST CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THE
FCST TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW...WHICH BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND
INDICATES SOME DRY-SLOTTING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED BACK POPS IN THE GRIDS DURING THIS
TIME. WILL ALSO ADD THUNDER TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE
DRY-SLOTTING MAY ALLOW ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INCREASE INSTABILITY
AND CAPE VALUES. WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND TEMPS WARMING WELL
INTO THE 80S...WILL LEAVE SMALL CHC POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION ON MONDAY.

HAVE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS THROUGHOUT...BUT DID SHAVE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF FCST MAXES SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
START OFF THE PERIOD WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LOOKS
LIKE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN RIGHT NOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH 20ISH POPS...THURSDAY/FRIDAY LOOK DRY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INLAND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/90 AND ON THE COAST HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING THEN TO IFR
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERS THE CWA. MOST
OF SUNDAY WILL BE IN IFR TO LOW MVFR RANGE. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL MOSTLY BE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
USED GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT IS CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL
TPC TRACK. DISCONTINUED GALES AND WENT WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SPREAD NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT SEA CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR QUITE A WHILE HOWEVER. PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE FROM MIDWEEK ON WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-
     135-150-152-154.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CLQ
AVIATION...CTC
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

NCZ095-098-031045-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-
631 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT
TODAY.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-031045-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
631 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-031045-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
631 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CONTINUING WINDY CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.