Coastal Flood Statement 14, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHES THE AREA.  THE MAJOR QUESTION IS TIMING THE ENDING OF THE
STORMS.  ARW MODEL LOOKS TO BE 2 TO 3 HOURS TOO FAST IN BRINGING SFC
TROF THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. I EXTENDED
THE TSTMS UP TO 10Z TOMORROW MORNING BUT THEY MAY LINGER OVER INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE FINALLY ENDING.  TOMORROW THE MAJOR WEATHER
CONCERN WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR EFFECT ON THE MARINE PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA.  SEE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. FIRE
WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
MINIMUM RHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S FOR TOMORROW AND FUEL MOISTURE IS
QUITE HIGH AFTER 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE PROBLEMS WITH WITH FIRE WX TOMORROW IN
OUR CWA.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AND COOLER WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...USED GFS/NAM BLEND FOR
WED-THU...THEN GFS/HPC BLEND REST OF PERIOD. SECONDARY UPR LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM NW WED AND MOVE ACROSS ON THU. GFS AND NAM SIMILAR
WITH THIS FEATURE...COMBINING WITH DAMPENING SRN STREAM UPR TROF TO
PRODUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF S ATLC COAST. UPR LOW TRACK ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SLGT CHC SHRA LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. DRY REST OF PERIOD
WITH RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI...THEN
MODERATING SAT-SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...IFR CONDITIONS IN TSTMS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO MVFR IN CEILINGS/VSBYS
AFTER ABOUT 21Z AND RAIN DIMINISHES. SHOULD BE BACK TO GENERALLY
VFR IN IMPROVING CEILINGS/VSBYS AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT ADVISORIES BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST RUNS OF THE ARW AND GFS. STORM WARNING
FOR THE OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT LEG WILL BE EXTENDED TO 10Z
MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT AT DIAMOND BUOY
CURRENTLY AND ANTICIPATE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30S WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 OVER THIS LEG THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SOUNDS
WILL REMAIN IN A GALE WARNING UNTIL 10Z WITH THE FAR NRN AND SRN
LEGS IN GALES UNTIL 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. AS LOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTH AND MOVES N TOWARD THE LONG ISLAND REGION THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MONDAY...STRONG NW WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MHX CSTL WATERS. IN FACT IT LOOKS TO BE LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE APALACHIANS AND
GRADIENT WEAKENS BELOW SCA ON ALL WATERS.

WITH WINDS VEERING TO A MORE SSW/SW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WILL ALLOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WILL
CONTINUE THE CSTL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUND SIDE FLOODING ON THE
OUTER BANKS THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ095-
     098-103-104.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ046-047-080-
     081-092>094-098.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.

     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-158.

&&

SHORT TERM...KRIEHN
LONG TERM...MERRELL
AVIATION...COLLINS
MARINE...COLLINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

NCZ029-044-045-079-090-091-161245-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...TORNADO WATCH 147 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ046-047-080-081-092>094-098-161245-
TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
ONSLOW-
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 147 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH
   WIND ADVISORY

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ095-161245-
CARTERET-
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 147 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING
   TORNADO WATCH

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ103-104-161245-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 147 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING
   TORNADO WATCH
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE
PRIMARY THREAT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-161245-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
843 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...TORNADO WATCH 147 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR AM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SOME
COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS
WILL MAKE BOATING HAZARDOUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS WILL MAKE BOATING HAZARDOUS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.