Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
219 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

.SHORT TERM...AS OF 2 PM THERE WERE A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES OVER
SOUTHEAST MODOC COUNTY BUT NONE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER THIS DOES NOT
MEAN THAT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DOES NOT EXIST. THERE ARE
AREAS OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
FIRE UP. IT LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL START TO BREAK OUT MID TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS MUCH MORE MOIST
COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE REMNANTS
OF TUESDAYS NIGHTS STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA. THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW THAT COULD BE MODERATE
TO SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
STORMS THE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRES IS STILL HIGH DUE TO THE
AVAILABLE DRY FUELS AND MORE LIGHTING STRIKES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. 5H
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THURSDAY WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SHIFTING EAST MAINLY OVER THE CASCADES AND EASTSIDE. THE GFS SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
QPF SEEMS TO BE LACKING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTSIDE. SO HAVE
INSERTED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST.

.LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
OVER NORTHWEST WASHINGTON SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A WEAK FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE GFS AND EURO BEGIN
TO SHOW DIFFERENCES NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTH
OF THE CWA TUESDAY WHILE THE EURO SLOWS THE PROGRESSION AND
ACTUALLY HAS THE LOW DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR CWA. IF THIS IS RIGHT, THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED. FOR NOW HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND
AREAS THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS INLAND WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING THEN VFR
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ615-ORZ616-
     ORZ617-ORZ618-ORZ619-ORZ620-ORZ621-ORZ622-ORZ623-ORZ624-
     ORZ625.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ORZ617-ORZ623-ORZ624-ORZ625.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

PETRUCELLI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
515 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

ORZ021>031-121215-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
515 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
PDT THIS EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 615 THROUGH 625 IN OREGON INCLUDING THE UMPQUA
ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU AND AND FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FORESTS.FOR FURTHER
DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.