Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Medford, OR

000
WWUS86 KMFR 111715
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1015 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

ORZ615>625-112315-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.070711T1800Z-070712T0600Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST-WESTERN SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1015 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN OREGON UNTIL 11
PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING. LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN ZONE 624. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

DW

000
WWUS86 KMFR 112238
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
338 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

ORZ617-623>625-120645-
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.A.0005.070712T2100Z-070713T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070712T0600Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
338 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623 THROUGH 625 IN OREGON...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623 THROUGH 625 IN OREGON
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU AND
FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623 THROUGH 625 IN OREGON. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623 THROUGH 625 IN OREGON.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING. LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS IN ZONE 624. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST
OFFSHORE. THE AREA OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD. NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

ORZ615-616-618>622-120600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070712T0600Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-SOUTHERN OREGON COAST-
WESTERN SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
338 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 615 THROUGH 616 AND 618 THROUGH 622 IN
OREGON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 615 THROUGH 616 AND 618 THROUGH 622 IN
OREGON. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

CC

000
WWUS86 KMFR 120409
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
909 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

ORZ617-623>625-121215-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070712T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0005.070712T2100Z-070713T0600Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
909 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 617 AND 623 THROUGH 625 
IN OREGON INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA ROGUE RIVER-SISKIYOU 
AND FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FORESTS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE. THE
AREA OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
THE CASCADES EASTWARD. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

ORZ615-616-618>622-120515-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-070712T0600Z/
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-UMPQUA BASIN-SOUTHERN OREGON COAST-
WESTERN SISKIYOU NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
909 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

$$

STAVISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
304 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...NOCTURNAL CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW STRIKES STILL LINGERING OFF THE COAST. A CLOUD
SHIELD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS AND WILL MOVE OFF THIS
MORNING. TROUGH CHURNING OVER 30N 140W WILL HAS KEPT SE FLOW OVER
THE FA...THEREFORE AIDING IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW THAT BROUGHT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GENERATE LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AIDED IN THESE STORMS BEING MORE WET IN NATURE...HOWEVER
STORMS ALSO PRODUCE COPIOUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.

LAST NIGHTS ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR HAIL GROWTH WAS TOO
HOSTILE AS THE FREEZING LEVEL OVER 15KFT AND SFC TEMPS WERE FROM
THE UPPER 90S TO THE 100S. FROM THE 00Z SOUNDING...CAPE VALUES
WERE JUST OVER 800J/KG...NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR HAIL GROWTH. IF
ANY HAIL WERE FALLING OUT OF THE STORM IT WOULD NOT LAST LONG AS
IT DESCENDED INTO A VERY WARM ENVIRONMENT.

LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE A REPEAT AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST HAS EMBEDDED
IN ITS FLOW A PRETTY POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO ADVECT
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OPENING THE DOOR TO
ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A DIFFERENCE.
AS THE LOW PUSHES CLOSER...1000-500MB HEIGHTS DROP RELAXING MAX
TEMPS TODAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOLD CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG DUE TO TO THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH...SO SMALL HAIL
GROWTH LOOKS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY.

STORM ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE EAST AND PROGRESS WEST THROUGH THE
EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS AND DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER MAXIMUM
HEATING. VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE COAST WILL PUSH
NORTH OVER THE FA DURING MAXIMUM HEATING TODAY INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AND SHOULD FIZZLE A FEW
HOURS PAST SUNSET.

AS THIS LOW MOVES TOWARD THE COAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AS THE MARINE INFLUENCE PUSHES ON SHORE CUTTING OFF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CASCADES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOK TO BE
WARM...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S EACH DAY. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM
EACH OTHER. WITH LITTLE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS...DID NOT TOUCH TOO MUCH IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR INLAND WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG
THE COASTLINE...MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
MARINE LAYER WILL BURN OFF WITH HEATING TOWARD LATE MORNING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ORZ620-
     ORZ621-ORZ622-ORZ623.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ280.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

BURTIS