Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Medford, OR

000
WWUS86 KMFR 062218
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
318 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-070600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070707T0600Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
318 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN COMBINED 
WITH DRY FUELS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 IN OREGON INCLUDING THE 
FREMONT NATIONAL FOREST AND THE BLM LANDS OF LAKE COUNTY AND 
ZONES 284 AND 285 IN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE WINEMA...MODOC 
AND KLAMATH NATIONAL FORESTS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING. 

HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS A SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE ROTATES NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT...BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME.
SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO
50 MPH. HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO 6 ARE ALSO FORECAST.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$


11

000
WWUS86 KMFR 070543
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1043 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007


CAZ284-285-ORZ624-625-070645-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070707T0600Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1043 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT.

$$

MWJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.  LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY VERY HIGH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AS WELL INDICATING A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDUCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WEST OF THE
CASCADES A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CAP IS IN PLACE AND ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN.  THUS THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS QUITE LOW
WESTSIDE.  EASTSIDE AND SISKIYOU COUNTY IS ANOTHER STORY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY CAP WILL BE ERODED AWAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. ALSO IN THE
MIX IS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH NOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL ACT TO FURTHER SUPPORT LATE
DAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH FUELS DRY AND THE POTENTIAL IN PLACE
FOR NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE AREAS AFFECTED.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST
SATURDAY AND MAY BE WETTER.  WILL CONSIDER PUTTING A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH OUT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EASTSIDE ZONES.  MUCH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL EAST
OF OUR AREA.

EXTENDED PROGS SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING JUST EAST OF OUR
AREA WITH THE AIR MASS VERY WARM AND DRY.  THUS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT MAY ADVECT MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF LATE DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.  HAVE OPTED TO INDICATE THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS COOS COUNTY WITH LOCAL IFR NEAR
BROOKINGS. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN
VFR.  INLAND AREAS VFR WITH INCREASING CUMULUS...THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS SISKIYOU
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNIN  FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     11 PM PDT ORZ624-625 AND CAZ280-285.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ356-PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ356-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ350-PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ350-PZZ370.

03/09/09