Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

000
WWUS86 KMFR 230030
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
530 PM PDT FRI JUN 22 2007

CAZ285-230500-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070623T0500Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
530 PM PDT FRI JUN 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR MODOC COUNTY.
THIS INCLUDES THE MODOC NATIONAL FOREST.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 17
PERCENT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY MID EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE 70S...HUMIDITY
INCREASES...AND WINDS DECREASE.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

STAVISH

000
WWUS86 KMFR 230404
RFWMFR

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
904 PM PDT FRI JUN 22 2007

CAZ285-230515-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070623T0500Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
904 PM PDT FRI JUN 22 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE EASED UP OVER MODOC COUNTY THIS EVENING AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS RISING AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE 60S.

$$

STAVISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
316 AM PDT FRI JUN 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE CALENDAR HAS TURNED TO SUMMER BUT CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SPRING. THE 3 MAJOR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE A SLOW-MOVING
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE FROM WASHINGTON THAT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY...WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT SHOULD BE THE DRIVER OF
CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

A VERY WEAK FRONT WHICH CROSSED NORTHERN OREGON ON THURSDAY HAS
BROUGHT A MARINE PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON. MORNING LOW CLOUDS
IN MUCH OF THE COQUILLE AND UMPQUA BASINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ROGUE BASIN AS WELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE OTHER NOTABLE
ELEMENT TO TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE
CASCADES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A THERMAL LOW OVER EASTERN OREGON AND A COASTAL
SURFACE HIGH.

THE GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND THE AIR MASS HAS MORE OF A
MARINE INFLUENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. AFTERNOON WINDS
EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL BE BREEZY BOTH DAYS.

A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS FOR CURRY
COUNTY BUT INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH ANOTHER BROAD GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS IS FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE TROUGH. THE GFS SOLUTION IS DEEPER/COLDER AND MORE MOIST
THAN THE TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND... WHICH MAKES THE SOLUTION MORE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND
LESSENS MY CONFIDENCE IN IT. THUS I WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN RESTRICTED TO THE COAST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER/WEAKER
SOLUTION WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT WILL KEEP IN MIND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ALTERNATIVE TRACK OF THE TROUGH WHICH COULD BRING
WARMER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CEILINGS OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET AGL IN THE UMPQUA
AND ROGUE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. ALSO...AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY
NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

DW