Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTH TO
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL. WINDS
WILL START TO BRIDGE OVER THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE
DIGGING H5 TROUGH WHICH WILL DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH. GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALSO. THE H5 TROUGH WILL LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND THE PUSH IS LOST TO DRIVE THE
FRONT ANY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AND
BECOME DIFFUSE BY MONDAY. NUMEROUS POPS WILL BE FORECASTED THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN ONLY SCATTERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AND EVEN LESS FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. POPS BECOME SCATTERED AGAIN BY THE
WEEKS END AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE MID WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH TERMINAL KPBI HAVING VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AND
CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH AND MOVING NORTH NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
TERMINALS KMIA...KTMB AND KOPF ALL HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS AND MOVING
NORTH JUST TO THEIR WEST. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER NIGHT...WITH ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 4 FEET
OR LESS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS HERE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  75  87 / 70 70 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  77  87 / 70 70 40 40
MIAMI            78  88  77  88 / 70 70 40 40
NAPLES           75  88  74  90 / 70 70 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-200045-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
845 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
...MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, BEFORE DECEASING TO ISOLATED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. IF YOU SEE
LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER MOVE INSIDE UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED
BY.

FLOODING: THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN THE LOW LYING AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS OVER THE INLAND AND INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SEE WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY, DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH IT. TURN AROUND, DO NOT DROWN.

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
HEAT INDICES TO GET UP INTO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 MPH
AND LOW TIDE THIS MORNING, THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA EACH DAY WITH THE RISK OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE COULD
ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AT
10 TO 15 MPH ALONG WITH LOW TIDE DURING THE DAY HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

FLZ067-068-168-191830-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH PALM BEACH GENERAL AIRPORT...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

JUPITER FARMS...
PHILO FARMS...
TEQUESTA...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NEAR TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING
IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN
SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. GET INDOORS NOW

LAT...LON 2700 8024 2700 8019 2700 8006 2695 8004
      2677 8013 2683 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 201DEG 16KT 2688 8017

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

FLZ072-074-172-173-192000-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
320 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 320 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAUDERHILL TO
HIALEAH GARDENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

CAROL CITY...
OPA-LOCKA...
CORAL SPRINGS...
COCONUT CREEK...
IVES ESTATES...
EASTERN PEMBROKE PINES...
EASTERN MIRAMAR...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. LIGHTNING IS THE
NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS
OFFER NO PROTECTION. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2621 8029 2633 8027 2632 8020 2631 8008
      2623 8010 2589 8016 2589 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 211DEG 16KT 2619 8023 2590 8026

STRASSBERG