Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Miami, FL

000
WWUS52 KMFL 171817
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

FLC011-171825-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-070617T1830Z/
BROWARD FL-
215 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM WHICH 
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...DANGEROUS 
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR 
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM WESTON AND ALONG THE 
SAWGRASS EXPRESSWAY.

LAT...LON 2606 8053 2603 8043 2629 8019 2633 8046

$$

DG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.UPDATE...A LITTLE PERPLEXED THIS MORNING AS TO WHAT WILL
TRANSPIRE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHEST
POPS ADVERTISED FOR THE IMMEDIATE SE CST BUT ALL GUIDANCE IS
HINTING THAT THIS NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD. CONVECTION OVER
THE WATER SEEMS TO BE TIED TO A SFC CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WHICH THE
GFS SHOWS TO BE MIGRATING NORTH AS THE WEAK SFC LOW MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THE WRF ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG THE SE CST SEA BREEZE IN THE HOUR PRECEDING 18Z
AND THEN BUILDING INLAND TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE
SUSPICIOUS THOUGH AS THE STEERING FLOW CONTINUES WEST TO EAST
WHERE THE EAST COAST AGAIN WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE ALONG WITH THE
INTERIOR ZONES. IN ADDITION, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT AT
JUST BELOW TWO INCHES WITH AMPLE CAPE AND GPS SATELLITE ESTIMATES
ARE TWO INCHES FOR BOTH MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND 1.75
FOR LAKE OKEE WHICH IS UP FROM 1.6 INCHES EARLIER THIS MORNING. SO
HAVING SAID ALL THAT, WILL EXPAND LIKELY POPS TO INCLUDE ALL EAST
COAST ZONES WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR
ZONES SURROUNDING THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VAR THIS MORNING BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES...KEPT VCTS AT
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DIE OUT THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007/

SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

DISCUSSION...THE MOISTURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THE WETTEST... PWATS OF AROUND
2.1 IN MIAMI VS 1.6 IN PALMDALE. THIS GRADIENT WILL ALLOW MIAMI-
DADE CO TO BE THE WETTEST AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
STILL THINK THAT GFS POPS OF 70 TO 80 ARE A BIT HIGH. IT IS LIKELY
THAT MOST EVERYBODY IN MIAMI- DADE WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME POINT,
BUT DAY WILL NOT LIKELY BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS... WENT 60% INSTEAD. NORTH OF THE WEAK TROUGH, THE POPS
GRADIENT TRAILS OFF WITH NORTHERN BROWARD TO PORTIONS OF COLLIER
COUNTY AND POINTS NORTHWARD REMAINING AROUND 40%. ON MONDAY THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRIER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE
TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT. HOWEVER, SCATTERED STORMS CAN STILL
BE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR DURING MAX HEATING BUT WITH THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED MOST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTROLS THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

AVIATION...AT THE MOMENT N HALF OF CWA MOSTLY CLEAR WITH S HALF INDICATING SHRA
ENDING WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING MOVING N THROUGH FLA
STRAITS MAY MOVE ONSHORE EXTREME S AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
VFR THROUGH 16Z EXPECTED THEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG/VSBY IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION BUT MAINLY AFFECTING KTMB...KMIA...KOPF...KFLL AND KFXE.

MARINE...A LIGHT WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND WAVES AT 4 FEET OR
LESS, HOWEVER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY AND WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-180515-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPING
WITH STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS: A WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WHICH MOVE
INTO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY FUNNEL CLOUDS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA