Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Miami, FL

274 
WWUS52 KMFL 191941
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLC011-086-192015-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070519T2015Z/
BROWARD FL-MIAMI-DADE FL-
338 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 334 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY 
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED NEAR MIRAMAR...OR OVER MIRAMAR...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIAMI
GARDENS...DOLPHINS STADIUM...CAROL CITY...MIAMI LAKES...HIALEAH
GARDENS...SAINT THOMAS UNIVERSITY...OPA-LOCKA AND HIALEAH

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITHOUT WARNING. IF A 
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A 
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2605 8036 2596 8044 2582 8032 2597 8020

$$

GARCIA

127 
WWUS52 KMFL 191953
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLC011-192002-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070519T2015Z/
BROWARD FL-
352 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BROWARD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 2595 8033 2591 8039 2582 8032 2594 8022

$$

FLC086-192015-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070519T2015Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
352 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 347 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO GOLF 
BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM 
WAS LOCATED NEAR HIALEAH GARDENS...OR ABOUT NEAR HIALEAH...MOVING 
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN MEDLEY 
AREA AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN OPALOCKA WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE 
IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND 
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 2595 8033 2591 8039 2582 8032 2594 8022

$$

GARCIA

650 
WWUS52 KMFL 192005
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLC086-192015-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-070519T2015Z/
MIAMI-DADE FL-
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HIALEAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
BROWNSVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITHOUT WARNING. 
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY 
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 2592 8027 2587 8034 2580 8028 2587 8020

$$

GARCIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
226 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE LOW IN THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL REGIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
ADJACENT WATERS. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
TRANSITION TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY THE OFF SHORE WATERS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED THEREAFTER AND
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BE ME MARGINAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND LACK OF DYNAMICS ALSO DO NOT FAVOR ANY
SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIP AND THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE THE SEA BREEZE AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. BUT WITH THE MODERATE EASTERLIES
DOMINATING THE REGION...THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY CLOSER
TO THE WEST COASTAL ZONE.

THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SPURIOUS LOWS ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH IN TURN AFFECTS THE GUIDANCE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. FOR EXAMPLE THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS TOO
HIGH AS WELL. BUT INSPECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. BUT
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH...SO
THE WINDS WERE BROUGHT DOWN A FEW KNOTS. THIS THEN BROUGHT DOWN THE
FORECAST SEAS FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STILL LOOKS NECESSARY FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE
GULF STREAM AND OFF SHORE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 7
FEET...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE MAINLAND WHERE ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT HAS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY.  WILL LEAVE VCTS/CB IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS
THROUGH 20/01Z...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.  EXPECT
TO SEE A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND TO AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.  ALTHOUGH HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND DAWN...WILL ONLY CARRY MVFR AT THIS TIME.  STREAMER SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ON SUNDAY MORNING...
WITH GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  70/DD

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE GULF STREAM AND OFF SHORE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO NEAR 7 FEET...MAYBE LOCALLY HIGHER IN ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO
SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WINDS INCREASE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ATLANTIC BEACHES
WILL INCREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  74  82  73 / 50 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  83  73 / 50 40 30 30
MIAMI            85  74  84  73 / 50 40 30 30
NAPLES           87  67  86  70 / 40 30 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLZ063-066>075-192230-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
625 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35
MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.

WAVES: NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL
OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GULF STREAM SEAS BUILDING INTO THE 6 TO 8 FOOT
RANGE BY THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS REASON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM REMAINING HIGH THROUGH
THIS TIME. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLZ071-072-074-191915-
WESTERN BROWARD FL-BROWARD METROPOLITAN FL-DADE METROPOLITAN FL-
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

AT 236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...OR 8 MILES
WEST OF DAVIE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

FLZ071>074-191945-
WESTERN BROWARD FL-WESTERN DADE FL-BROWARD METROPOLITAN FL-
DADE METROPOLITAN FL-
312 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2007

AT 312 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...OR
6 MILES WEST OF MIRAMAR...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED HAIL...
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

70/DD