Red Flag Warning 56, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD THE WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE SURFACE HIGH WAS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE FRONTAL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING THE DRY AIR SEEN IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY KEEPING THE BREEZY TO
WINDY EASTERLY WINDS GOING OVER THE CWA. SO ONLY AREA THAT COULD
SEE A FAST MOVING SHOWER TODAY WOULD BE OVER THE EAST COAST
AREAS...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THIS AREA FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO THE EAST COAST AREAS WILL BE IN A 20
PERCENT POPS WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE MAINLY DRY TODAY.

THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH ALONG ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND AROUND 20 OVER REST OF THE REST
OF METRO EAST COAST AREAS. THIS WILL BE APPROACHING THE WND ADV
CONDITIONS WHICH IS 25 MPH SUSTAINED. DUE TO THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WILL NOT ISSUE A WND ADV WITH
THIS PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WINDS OVER THE EAST
COAST AREAS THIS MORNING TO SEE IF ONE WILL BE NEEDED LATER.

THE HIGH AND THE FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BREEZY TO WINDY
EASTERLY WINDS GOING OVER THE CWA...AND KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE EAST COAST AREAS...WHERE A QUICK
SHOWER COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST AREAS FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SO WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT POPS UP FOR
THE EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL ALSO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS TO SLOWLY DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE WINDS DECREASE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO SLOWLY START TO
MOISTEN UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO HAVE KEPT
A 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE INCREASING
THEM TO A CHANCE CAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE BREEZY AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED ENE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS TODAY BEFORE GOING
TO 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT. KAPF WILL BE 15 TO 20 KTS TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
24 HRS...THOUGH SHORT DURATION MVFR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. ONE OR
TWO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM OFF THE OCEAN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS...BUT THEY WILL BE FAR AND FEW
BETWEEN. SO WILL LEAVE THE TAF SITES AS DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN COMING IN FROM THE EASTERLY
DIRECTION AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 20 KNOTS
OVER REST OF THE CWA WATERS...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE NEAR-
SHORE GULF WATERS. THESE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO REMAIN AT 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THE SEAS IN THE GULF
SIDE...THEY WILL BE 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT
7 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WELL OFFSHORE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR-SHORE
GULF WATERS WHERE A SCEC WILL BE IN PLACE.

THE BREEZY TO WINDY EASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH THE LOW TIDES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO WILL HAVE A HEADLINE FOR THIS IN THE EAST COAST METRO
ZONES TODAY.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EAST COAST BEACHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT HIGH
TIDES. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO MORNING PRODUCT FOR THIS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING UP INTO THE 80S OVER THE EAST
COAST AREAS...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST AREAS. THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEW POINTS TO REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S EAST COAST AREAS...AND FALL INTO THE 50S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S OVER THE EAST COAST
AREAS...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZY TO WINDY WINDS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 15
MPH. SO WILL ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  75  83  75 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  76  83  76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            84  75  84  75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           91  70  91  70 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ069-FLZ070.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
509 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

FLZ063-066>075-232100-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
509 AM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...MINOR BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ALONG EAST COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY. AS A RESULT, SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED AT THESE BEACHES. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG
WINDS MINOR BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY PARTICULARLY AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

WAVES: DUE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL
BUILD UP T0 9 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LESS NEARSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AT AROUND 8 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PS