Red Flag Warning 51, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 011705 RRA
RFWMFL

RED FLAG WARNING...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

FLZ063-066-069-070-012300-
/O.CON.KMFL.FW.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070501T2300Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-
105 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN 4 CONSECUTIVE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR
THIS REASON...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

.UPDATE...VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST COAST WHERE A STRONG SEA BREEZE SET
UP. THIS SET THE STAGE FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT JUST EAST OF APF AND THEN MOVED LITTLE. THE STRENGTH
OF THE CONVECTION DID NOT LAST LONG AS VERY DRY ALOFT ALSO GOT
ENTRAINED AND CUT OFF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. STILL, THE CONVECTION
IS LASTING WELL INTO THE EVENING JUST NOW DISSIPATING. SO WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF EVENING POPS AND REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT LOOKS QUIET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST.  LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES HEALTHY CU ALONG THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS REGION UNTIL DUSK.  OVERALL...A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WEAK FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.  AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST.  LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE MADE...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AS
DEEP UPPER TROUGHS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE
INDUCED CONVECTION EVERY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AT 3500-4500 FT
EAST TERMINALS. BROKEN CLOUDS AT 6000 FT SHOULD MOVE EAST AND
SCATTER OUT SHORTLY WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND.
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN SOUTHERN GA WAS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD BY
PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 5000 FT HAS SINCE THINNED OUT
AND THAT FLOW HAS VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOON TO THE EAST AND
SMOKE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THE
WEST COAST MAY RESULT IN ISOLD -SHRA EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF KAPF THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NO CONCERNS...WITH EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

FLZ063-066>075-011400-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
955 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.