Red Flag Warning 35, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT
IS STILL THE DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER MONDAY AND WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEAST FLOW. GFS
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED FOR FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SECOND FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTS, GENERALLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER A SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST AFFECTING APF WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD NOT REACH ABOVE 4 FEET FOR GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 4 HOURS VERIFIED A RED FLAG YESTERDAY. THE NAM12
AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGEST A LITTLE LOWER RHS TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG SHORTLY. THE MINIMUM RHS ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S PERCENTILE RANGE WITH THE
SEABREEZES PENETRATING FAR INLAND. SO EVEN IF WE REACH NEAR 35
PERCENT, WE WONT HAVE THE DURATION. EXPECT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  70  83  67 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  68 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI            83  71  84  69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES           86  64  85  65 / - 0 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
451 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

FLZ063-066>075-032345-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
451 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORES OF MIAMI
DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ALONG THE SHORES OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES THAN THE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE SHORES OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SHORES OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES TODAY ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF LOW TIDE WHICH WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IN PALM BEACH THE RISK WILL
REMAIN SLIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE EASTERLY FLOW THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION REDUCING THE CHANCE OF RIP
CURRENTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY IT MAY CREATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.