Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO INCLUDING FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WEAK SHORT WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION CREATING FAVORABLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE,
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORT WAVE IS DEPICTED AS WEAKENING AND
SINKING SOUTH AS IT MOVES TOWARD FLORIDA BY BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM, THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. THE NAM HAS BECOME MORE OPTIMISTIC AS FAR AS CHANCES FOR
RAIN BUT THE GFS IS NOW BACKING OFF FROM LAST NIGHTS FORECAST MODEL
RUNS. HPC QPF FORECASTS ARE HOPEFUL, SHOWING AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SOME COASTAL PLACES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL LIFTED
INDICES ARE SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND A CAPPING MID LEVEL INVERSION IS
SHOWN AS ERODING THURSDAY SO INHERITED FORECAST OF POSSIBLE THUNDER
ESPECIALLY OVER MARINE LOCATIONS LOOKS REASONABLE. H5 FORECAST
TEMPERATURES OF -13 TO -14C ARE CERTAINLY VERY COLD SO ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL GO
AHEAD AND EXPAND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AREA TO ALL AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. BY FRIDAY
RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A
CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE WEAK CYCLONIC SYSTEM WE ARE
NOW EXPERIENCING.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AXIS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TO
OUR WEST WILL PROVIDE A FEW DAYS OF TRANQUIL WEATHER JUST IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE BAJA CUTOFF LOW UNFORTUNATELY MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO THE CONTINENTAL USA AND OPENS UP, GRADUALLY PUSHING THE GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE AXIS EAST ACROSS FLORIDA AND FLATTENING IT OUT. THE
NEXT REASONABLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE UNTIL
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT AT THE ATLANTIC COAST AIRPORTS WHERE SHRA
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BROKEN
MARINE LAYER STRATOCUMULUS AOA 5-6 THSD FEET WILL BE PREVALENT
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE.

.MARINE...WINDS TODAY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE BUT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT SO AM RELUCTANT TO
DROP IT ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH TO DROP SCA BUT WILL PROBABLY
NEED SCEC RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF ENOUGH ON
SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH EASTERLY FLOW BUT
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. NEEDLESS TO SAY RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME DRIER AIR
OVER THE WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
BELOW 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  78  69  81 / 40 50 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  78  70  80 / 40 60 30 10
MIAMI            70  79  70  81 / 40 60 30 10
NAPLES           61  81  64  85 / 20 40 20 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...50/RLP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
524 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

FLZ063-066>075-212115-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
524 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MUCH OF THIS WEEK ATLANTIC COAST...
...GULF STREAM SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SWIMMING IS
NOT ADVISED DUE TO THE DANGER POSED BY RIP CURRENTS. FOLLOW THE
ADVICE OF LOCAL LIFEGUARDS.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS.

WAVES: WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, GULF STREAM
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 8 FEET BY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WITH A LARGE, STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION REMAINING
IN PLACE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK IS
LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SWIMMERS ARE URGED TO STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED DAILY BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING THE RIP CURRENT RISK. SWIMMING
IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING PERIODS OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...AND
SWIMMERS SHOULD FOLLOW THE WARNINGS AND ADVICE OF LOCAL
LIFEGUARDS.

GULF STREAM SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 6 TO 8 FEET INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND 20 MPH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY CONTINUE AS A RESULT.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
AS A RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG