Marine Weather Statement 80, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING TO SOME AGREEMENT FOR WHAT
TRANSPIRES WEATHERWISE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH GFS AND NAM
INITIALIZED A WEAK LOW ALONG THE OLD TROUGH BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN LYING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA (ALTHOUGH
THE GFS DEPICTS IT BETTER.) THE LOW IS JUST OFF THE SE CST AND THIS
COULD BE SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MAINLAND ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT S FLA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING COULD HAVE STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS. WITH SCT SHRA
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NOW ACROSS PALM BEACH INTO NORTHEAST MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES, DO NOT WANT TO LOWER AFTERNOON POPS IN CASE LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AS DEPICTED BY THE WRF MODEL. THE
GFS SHOWS THE SFC LOW GETTING CAUGHT UP IN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND MOVES IT AWAY FROM S FLA. THIS KEEPS SOME OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND PWAT VALUES FCST
TO BE AROUND TWO INCHES. THIS SHOULD GIVE S FLA MORE OF A TYPICAL
SUMMER DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCT
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW WILL STILL BE
FAVORING THE E CST SO HIGHEST POPS THERE. AS THE UPPER AND SFC LOW
MOVE TO THE EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE WITH A
TRANSITION TO SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ACARS DATA SHOWS WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS STRONG ENOUGH TO LIKELY
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A PREVAILING SW WIND FLOW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT PBI
WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VAR. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...SO CONTINUED VCTS IN THE
TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VAR AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES AWAY FROM S FLA.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS. THIS WILL MEAN THE MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS
WILL BE DODGING ANY TSRA THAT MOVES INTO THE WATERS MAINLY OVER
THE ATLANTIC PORTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  76  87 / 40 40 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  86  76  88 / 50 50 20 30
MIAMI            73  88  75  88 / 50 50 20 30
NAPLES           75  89  75  90 / 20 40 10 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-170015-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
806 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

DG