Marine Weather Statement 76, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A BIT OF DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE 15K FT AND
THIS INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO GET STARTED. DO
HOWEVER HAVE ONE GOOD CELL MOVING THROUGH THE MIAMI METRO AREA AS
OF THIS WRITING. THE DRYING HAS OCCURRED WITH UPPER TROUGH SITTING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS
LOW. THE GFS SHOWED THIS TREND OCCURRING SO HAVE LOWERED THE
AFTERNOON POPS TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. ALL OF THIS IS INTERACTING
WITH THE TROUGH BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO NOW BE OVR THE FAR SOUTH
TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR THE FLA KEYS AND BECOMING STATIONARY.
VERY WEAK SFC GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY BRINGING THE TROUGH BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AND LIKELY POPS IN ORDER FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE NORTH INTO SATURDAY AND POPS WILL GO LIKELY ALL OF S FLA.
THIS WILL BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKING AT PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2.25 INCHES BY
SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SCENARIO. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO FILL IN AND MOVE FARTHER EAST AND SOME SLIGHT
DRYING BEGINS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN CLOSER TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS
(KTMB, KMIA KOPF AND KFLL) THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVR THE REMAINDER TERMINALS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. SCT
TO NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN VEER TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  75  84 / 20 50 60 70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  73  85 / 30 60 60 70
MIAMI            74  84  74  85 / 30 60 60 70
NAPLES           72  86  73  85 / 20 50 60 70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
532 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-142130-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
517 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2007

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. IF A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA, TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION AND SEEK
SHELTER BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES.

WATERSPOUTS: ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS WITH LITTLE WARNING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TODAY. IF RAINFALL APPROACHES YOUR AREA, KEEP ALERT TO THE
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEEK SHELTER BELOW DECK.

WIND: WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXCEED 60
MPH TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN LARGE TREE
BRANCHES AND POWER LINES, AND MAY MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING IN
ANY STORM.

HAIL: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE PENNY SIZE OR LARGER HAIL TODAY.

FLOODING: HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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