Marine Weather Statement 71, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES
TO DIG SOUTH WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEND AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THE
LINE OF STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS
THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE COMPLEX DRIVES SOUTH AND THEREFORE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT RUNS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND CONTINUES SOUTH AND IF IT DOESNT DISSIPATE IT MAY MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, BUT REGARDLESS IF
THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING. EVEN WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES
THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE WILL BE
GREATEST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT AFTER THAT
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SURGES NORTHWARD. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER
2 INCHES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
19Z TODAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MARCH SLOWLY INLAND
REACHING AFFECTING ALL EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ALONG WITH BREEZES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...SHOULD CONVERGE OVER INLAND AREAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY STORM/SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS DRIFT
TOWARD EAST COAST POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL EASTERN TERMINAL TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON  AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER ERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. KAPF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FREE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RELATIVELY CALM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AT 4 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  74  85 / 30 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  73  84 / 30 40 20 20
MIAMI            74  88  74  87 / 30 40 20 20
NAPLES           74  88  71  88 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLZ071-072-122315-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES EAST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT US 27
BETWEEN I-75 TO THE COUNTY LINE OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL
UP TO DIME SIZE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLZ071-072-122315-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
619 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES EAST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT US 27
BETWEEN I-75 TO THE COUNTY LINE OF BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL
UP TO DIME SIZE...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN DOWN
SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

BAXTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
628 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             3 SW VIRGINIA GARDENS   25.78N 80.33W
06/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE MALL OF THE
            AMERICAS.

&&

DG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLZ070-122345-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-
648 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN
RESERVATION MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT
I-75 OVER EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL HAIL UP
TO DIME SIZE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS PASS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI. FOR INFORMATION IN SPANISH, VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI/ESPANOL.

BAXTER

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