Marine Weather Statement 39, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT ALL ZONES...
...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...VERY BUSY DAY WITH SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS AND A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL 8 PM EDT. STORMS ARE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ALREADY A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ISSUED. CONCERNED ABOUT THE PULSE CELLS DEVELOPING LOCALLY...BUT
EVEN MORE CONCERNING ABOUT THE CELLS FORMING WITHIN A LINE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NAM THIS MORNING SHOWED THIS CONSOLIDATING INTO
AN MCS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE TAKING SHAPE. SO WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD HAIL/WIND THREAT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH EITHER AND MCS OR LINE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
OF COURSE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO STABILIZE...BUT WITH STILL SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN ON
AN INCREASING NE WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MONDAY WILL BE WINDY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND BREEZY
ELSEWHERE. KEPT WINDS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT
EXPECTING GUSTS TO 30 MPH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA...DIMINISHING THE RAIN CHANCES...SO SIDED ALONG WITH THE
GFS/NAM CONSENSUS OF A DRY DAY TOMORROW. A SPOKE OF MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE LOW AS THE LOW DRIFTS W-SW AND THIS COULD
INCREASE MOISTURE A BIT LOCALLY. THUS...ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

BIGGEST CONCERNS (OUTSIDE THE SEVERE WX THREAT THIS EVENING) WILL
BE WITH THE MARINE/COASTAL FCST. PLEASE SEE MARINE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. DUE TO THE LARGE SWELL EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW...WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COAST
TO BE EFFECTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. BREAKING
WAVES HIGHER THAN 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
BEACH EROSION AND VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. APPROACHES TO ALL
TERMINALS FROM THE INTERIOR WILL BE AFFECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO S FLA THIS EVENING BRINGING CEILINGS AROUND 3500 FT TO
THE E COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...A VERY STRONG LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT W-SW NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH HIGH WINDS (POSSIBLY TO HURRICANE FORCE) ON ITS BACK
SIDE THIS SETS UP A PERFECT FETCH FOR A LARGE SWELL EVENT FOR
THE LOCAL AREA. WAVEWATCH IS NOW SHOWING A 17 FT SWELL WITH A
PERIOD OF 13 SECONDS ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND 15 FT DOWN
THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE WATERS...PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. WILL NOT GO QUITE THIS HIGH AS THE LOW POSITION COULD
CHANGE THINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE SWELL/WAVE HGTS THIS PACKAGE. WILL MAX SWELL HEIGHTS AT
13 FT PALM BEACH COAST...WITH 7-9 FT ACROSS THE BROWARD/DADE
WATERS. APPROPRIATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE EFFECTIVE LATE
TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOK LIKELY FOR A
TIME...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN...WITH NAM12 SHOWING NEAR 40 KT
WINDS AT 925MB. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DO NOT FORSEE COASTAL FLOODING SINCE WINDS LOOK TO
BE OFFSHORE DURING THE PEAK OF THE SWELL MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 35 PERCENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME DURATION OF CRITICAL RHS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  78  61  79 / 50 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  64  80 / 50 10 20 20
MIAMI            69  79  63  80 / 50 10 20 20
NAPLES           66  84  60  80 / 30 10 -  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     FLZ068-FLZ072-FLZ074.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ630-
     AMZ651-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 PM
     EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR AMZ610-AMZ650-AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 12 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ656-
     GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER..57/DG
AVIATION...65/GS

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