Dense Smoke Advisory 3, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY SITES
REPORTING VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 4-5 MILES IN SMOKE...SO WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT
AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TAKE
PLACE. NAM-WRF DID AN EXCELLENT JOB YESTERDAY IN DEPICTING WHERE
CONVECTION DEVELOPED. ITS SOLUTION THIS MORNING LOOKS VERY
REASONABLE SO FOLLOWED THIS MODEL VERY CLOSELY...PLACING THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND TRENDING LOWER TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. NAM-WRF SHOWS A STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE...NOT ONLY FROM THE SEA
BREEZES BUT ALSO FROM A WEAK TROUGH LYING ACROSS THIS AREA. ACARS
DATA SHOWS THE H5 TEMPS AROUND -13C AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE
PALM BEACH REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOW CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG...LIS
AROUND -8C AND FAIRLY WIDE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH LAYER.
THUS...WILL ADD TO THE FCST THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN THIS REGION.

TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO EASTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
ALLOW THE SMOKE TO LEAVE THE AREA...THOUGH VISIBLE SAT IMAGES FROM
YESTERDAY SHOW THAT THE SMOKE HAS SPREAD EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...SO IT COULD TAKE UNTIL MONDAY FOR THE SMOKE TO ENTIRELY
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. KEPT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA.

MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FL MON-WED...WITH GFS
SHOWING PWATS CLIMBING TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...NAM SLIGHTLY LOWER.
THERE LOOKS TO BE GOOD CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
CONTINUED LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGHING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA. HPC FORECASTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT
5 DAYS...A WELCOME SIGHT.

LATE IN THE WEEK GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A STRONG HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. HELD OFF ON THIS IDEA FOR NOW MAKING
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS WITH SMOKE AND HAZE. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND
TO BE MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z AT ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
AND ISOLATED IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BEGIN BUILDING AND THIS WILL ALLOW AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP FROM ABOUT 16Z TO 18Z AND PUSH INLAND. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE BUT STILL ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED COVERAGE AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO TURN EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WINDS ARE FCST
TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT COULD OCCUR AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THEN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO RED FLAG CONCERNS AS MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  83  73 / 40 40 50 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  73  84  75 / 30 30 50 50
MIAMI            87  73  85  74 / 30 30 50 50
NAPLES           85  69  89  67 / 20 20 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/DG
AVIATION...30/KOB

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