Coastal Flood Warning 2, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
538 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...T.S. NOEL IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN NEAR
SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN CUBA ACCORDING TO RADAR AND IR SAT PIX.
IT IS TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AND HOPE ITS ONLY A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT.
WITH THE TRACK AT 5 AM, THE CLOSEST IT GETS TO OUR SOUTHEAST COAST
IS 140 MILES. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WINDY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND THE STORM TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SLOWLY DEEPENING SHORT WAVE COMING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SHOULD PICK UP
THE STORM AND START TO RECURVE IT NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. WE WILL START A
SLEW OF PRODUCTS ON THIS PACKAGE WHICH INCLUDES: A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXTENDED DOWN
THROUGH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BAY, A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST METRO AND COASTAL
ZONES AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

IN ANY CASE, WHEN THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST, THE
FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND PASS THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA SOMETIME FRIDAY. THE EFFECTS WE WILL FEEL WILL BE A
MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF RAIN, A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE TEMPERATURES
AND THE DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER FOR A CHANGE. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL
BE THE START OF THE DRY SEASON

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG NERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINNING BY MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL
BRING IN SCT SHRA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM TIME TO TIME.
STRONGER WINDS RESIDE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 2000 FEET OF THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY AND EVEN MORE SO IN ANY SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE STRONG WINDS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME OUTSIDE ANY PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE AS THE STORM
GETS CLOSER. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 30 TO 35 KNOTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF STREAM WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
WILL EASILY BE AT GALE FORCE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL START OUT AT 12 TO 14 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM TODAY
AND BUILD TO 16 TO 19 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO
SUBSIDE THURSDAY ON. RAISED THE SWELL HEIGHT OVER THE BROWARD
WATERS TO 5 FEET TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  80  85  77 / 40 50 60 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  80  85  77 / 30 50 60 20
MIAMI            86  80  86  77 / 30 50 60 20
NAPLES           88  73  87  73 / 30 30 40 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR FLZ067-FLZ071-FLZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ068-FLZ072-FLZ074-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ168.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ172-FLZ173.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     FLZ173.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-
     AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-301000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
820 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

...HIGH WIND WATCH EAST HALF TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...INCREASINGLY ROUGH WINDS AND SEAS LOCAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED EACH OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR THEIR FORMATION TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING IF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP.

WAVES: OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FEET
TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS HIGH
SURF ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST. OVER THE GULF WATERS, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET OVER THE
OUTER WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM NOEL NEAR NORTHEASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST
AND PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AND WEST CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL PERSONS IN MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
URGED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF NOEL THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF THE FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF NOEL, NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE BRISK OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NOEL AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
A RESULT. THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION, HIGH SURF AND BEACH
EROSION ARE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. VERY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.