Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTH OF AN OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PRODUCED BY LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. OVER THESE
LOCATIONS...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500J/KG AND LI/S TO -6C. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...BUT
WILL CARRY ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND LOSS OF
INSTABILITY PRECEDING IT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW A COOLER AND MUCH LESS
HUMID AIRMASS TO FILTER OVER THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (12Z GFS & ECMWF) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CUT-OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD UNDER A
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PLAINS. IT APPEARS
THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW AS UPPER LOWS TEND TO MOVE MUCH SLOWER WHEN
CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MODELS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE THIS LOW DIRECTLY INTO THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE. AT THIS POINT...PREFER A
MORE SOUTHERLY RETROGRADE AND MUCH SLOWER. AT THE SAME TIME...BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND
ALLOW A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
WITH ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...PREFER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW AND INTRODUCE PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AND
TEMPERATURES LOWERED IF THE UPPER LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE MID
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  89  67  89 /  10   0   0   0
MKL  61  87  57  86 /  10   0   0   0
JBR  64  88  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
TUP  66  89  61  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-210900-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
357 AM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
2 INCHES...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN NOON AND 8 PM CDT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MBS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

MSZ023-024-202100-
MONROE MS-CHICKASAW MS-
320 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...CHICKASAW AND MONROE
COUNTIES.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
45 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CHICKASAW AND NORTHERN MONROE
COUNTIES AT 320 PM...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
ABERDEEN...AMORY AND OKOLONA...SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

PWB