Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR. EXPECT ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MS. ONCE SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN
TO WANE IN THE LOWER SUN ANGLES... EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
DECREASE EARLY IN THE EVENING.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MORE FOCUSED WELL WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN OK. THIS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR ITS
CURRENT POSITION. PROSPECTS FOR A NEAR TERM FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH APPEAR SLIM...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OK SURFACE
LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIFTING NORTHEAST. GFS APPEARS TO NOT HAVE
INITIALIZED THIS LOW VERY WELL. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW TO RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TO ALREADY BE
OCCURRING TODAY...WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTH FROM THE BROAD UPPER
LOW... INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

THE GFS IS STILL INTENT ON DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF MODEL CONCURS TO A SMALL
EXTENT. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT THE IMPACT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE
LIMITED TO A SLIGHT BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES...AS TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL...TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SUMMER WEATHER FOR
THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  87  72  89 /  40  50  30  10
MKL  67  86  65  89 /  40  40  10  10
JBR  71  84  67  89 /  40  50  20  10
TUP  72  89  68  89 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
409 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
409 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDSOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST OVER AREAS
TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
DAMAGING STRAIT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE MID
SOUTH SUNDAY...SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO JACKSON TENNESSEE
LINE...MAINLY BETWEEN 11 AM AND 8 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES...WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON... MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

MSZ017-302045-
ITAWAMBA MS-
314 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...ITAWAMBA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EVERGREEN AT 314 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

TNZ089-302045-
FAYETTE TN-
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...FAYETTE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAGRANGE AT 317 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             BATESVILLE              34.32N 89.94W
06/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       PANOLA             MS   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN BATESVILLE

&&

MRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ARZ036-302115-
CRITTENDEN AR-
341 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...CRITTENDEN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TURRELL AT 341 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF TURRELL...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

MSZ001-302200-
DE SOTO MS-
413 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...DESOTO COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER OLIVE BRANCH AT 413 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HERNANDO...HORN
LAKE...OLIVE BRANCH AND SOUTHAVEN...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY..

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