Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 232012
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ARC037-232045-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-070623T2045Z/
CROSS AR-
311 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR CROSS COUNTY...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
WEST OF WYNNE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
FAIR OAKS...CENTRAL...ELLIS CHAPEL...AND VANNDALE.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3528 9101 3519 9098 3515 9076 3520 9068
      3540 9079

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 232027
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ARC037-232037-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0112.000000T0000Z-070623T2045Z/
CROSS AR-
327 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CROSS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 327 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3528 9101 3519 9098 3515 9076 3520 9068
      3540 9079

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1119 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM DAVENPORT THROUGH SAINT
LOUIS AND PADUCAH AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THUS FAR WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS
SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG TROUGH AXIS FROM MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NEW
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 304 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007...

FEW CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. THE PAST TWO
DAYS HAVE SEEN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL OVER THE MIDSOUTH. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND MAINTAIN
NEAR PERSISTENCE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...OUR MAIN FOCUS REMAINS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING FROM EAST TX INTO THE OZARKS REGION. EARLY MORNING GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWED AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN OK...WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TX. AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE 00Z GFS AND NAM MODELS
EDGE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST...THROUGH BOTH MODELS KEEP
THE UPPER LOW NEAR ITS CURRENT POSITION. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
LOWER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR WARRANTED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY STATIC UNTIL MIDWEEK.

GFS AND ECMWF BRING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS A LONGWAVE TROF FORMS OVER EASTERN CANADA. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY ARRIVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE LONGWAVE TROF MAY PERSIST NEAR ITS PROGGED
POSITION FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAINTAINING A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH PERIODS BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

PWB

&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
406 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-241115-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
406 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

ARZ035-048-232045-
CROSS AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF COLT AT 253 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY..