Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
840 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH
THE MID SOUTH AND BACK INTO A LOW ACROSS EAST OKLAHOMA. DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
REGIONAL WSR-88D SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE INDICIES INDICATE THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECASTED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT BASED UPON CURRENT SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ALL OTHER
WEATHER ELEMENTS SEEM FINE AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 312 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR. EXPECT ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MS. ONCE SURFACE TEMPS BEGIN TO
WANE IN THE LOWER SUN ANGLES... EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO DECREASE
EARLY IN THE EVENING.

SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MORE FOCUSED WELL WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN OK. THIS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR ITS
CURRENT POSITION. PROSPECTS FOR A NEAR TERM FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO
THE MIDSOUTH APPEAR SLIM...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE OK SURFACE
LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LIFTING NORTHEAST. GFS APPEARS TO NOT HAVE
INITIALIZED THIS LOW VERY WELL. SUSPECT THIS FEATURE WILL SUFFICIENTLY
WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW TO RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS APPEARS TO ALREADY BE
OCCURRING TODAY...WITH ENERGY EJECTING NORTH FROM THE BROAD UPPER
LOW... INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

THE GFS IS STILL INTENT ON DROPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF MODEL CONCURS TO A SMALL
EXTENT. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT THE IMPACT OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE
LIMITED TO A SLIGHT BUMP IN RAIN CHANCES...AS TEMPS REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS. OVERALL...TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SUMMER WEATHER FOR
THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  87  72  89 /  40  50  30  10
MKL  67  86  65  89 /  40  40  10  10
JBR  71  84  67  89 /  40  50  20  10
TUP  72  89  68  89 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
803 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
803 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PART OF THE MID
SOUTH SUNDAY...SOUTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO JACKSON TENNESSEE
LINE...MAINLY BETWEEN 11 AM AND 8 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES...WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
823 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKELAND                35.24N 89.73W
06/30/2007                   SHELBY             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON DAVIS PLANTATION ROAD.

0430 PM     HAIL             BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
06/30/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
06/30/2007                   SHELBY             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON YALE ROAD.

&&

MBS