Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 040007
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
706 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ARC021-040016-
CLAY AR-
706 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CLAY COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA.  CLAY COUNTY SHERIFF DOES NOT REPORT ANY FLOODING 
AT THIS TIME...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3650 9017 3639 9008 3629 9007 3624 9012
      3621 9025 3627 9031 3627 9077 3649 9078

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
153 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STILL LOOKING AT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...LIKELY MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

18Z LZK SOUNDING AND LATE MORNING AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AT MEMPHIS
INDICATE A WARM LAYER AT 900 MB TO 750 MB...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THIS CAP IS GRADUALLY ERODING...AS SURFACE
TEMPS OVER NORTHERN AR REACH THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED LINEAR ORIENTED TOWERING
CU DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA... AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH ROUGHLY
EXTENDED ALONG INTERSTATE 44 AT DISCUSSION TIME.

EXPECT A MULTI SEGMENT LINEAR MCS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE OZARKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. 18Z SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATED CAPES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE MIDSOUTH. WITH MARGINAL SHEAR...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR BOUNDARIES AND OTHER LOCALIZED SOURCES OF
HIGHER HELICITY. WHAT TORNADO THREAT THERE IS SHOULD DECREASE
BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY MODERATES.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE DRAMATIC... COURTESY OF
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUBFREEZING MINIMUM TEMPS
THIS WEEKEND. SOME QUESTION PERSISTS CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW DEWPOINTS REMAIN AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT BY LATE THURSDAY. 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESSES OF 5220 M ARE
CERTAINLY UNUSUAL FOR EARLY/MID APRIL. WILL MENTION MORNING FROST
IN THE WEEKEND PERIODS AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF POSSIBLE FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  50  63  40  60 /  70   0   0   0
MKL  47  61  30  56 /  70   0   0   0
JBR  47  62  35  57 /  40   0   0   0
TUP  56  66  37  59 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041030-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
255 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ROUGHLY
NORTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO CORINTH MISSISSIPPI LINE. A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS
COULD BE NEAR THE FREEZING POINT. OVER THE WEEKEND...FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THROUGH THE EVENING.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ARZ008-032145-
RANDOLPH AR-
415 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...RANDOLPH COUNTY.

AN APPROACHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL
SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF RANDOLPH COUNTY
ARKANSAS 415 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST RANDOLPH COUNTY IN THE NEXT 15
MINUTES.

PEOPLE IN RANDOLPH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
505 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             MAYNARD                 36.42N 90.90W
04/03/2007  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   PUBLIC

&&

SVR