Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
311 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID-SOUTH. SPC HAS EAST-CENTRAL AR INTO PART OF SOUTHWEST
TN AND MOST OF NORTH MS IN A MODERATE RISK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE WEST THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A DEEPENING AND
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES SEEMS TO BE FROM EAST-CENTRAL AR
INTO NORTHWEST MS. CAPES AROUND 1000 J/G...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60...AND HIGH HELICITY (0-1 KM OF 500 J/KG) ALIGN
THE BEST IN THIS AREA FROM ABOUT NOW UNTIL 9 PM. ALSO SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO PARAMETER VALUES EXCEED 5 IN THIS AREA...THUS WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

IT APPEARS THE FRONT MAY COME THROUGH AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...THUS LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IN NORTHERN AREAS.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS SUNDAY BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT WILL NOT
MENTION IN THIS FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
MID-SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS STILL
FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME AND WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH LATER MODEL
RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  44  55  38  60 /  90  10  10  10
MKL  43  53  33  56 / 100  10  10  10
JBR  41  52  35  54 /  60  10  10  10
TUP  46  58  36  62 / 100  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

JCL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
135 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251100-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
135 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...PART OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO HENDERSON
TENNESSEE. IN MISSISSIPPI...THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND WEST
OF A CORINTH TO TUPELO LINE.

THE MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...
CLARKSDALE...AND TUPELO.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE MID-SOUTH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SOUTHWARD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH.
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL OCCUR INTO
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID-SOUTH THURSDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PART OF THE MID-SOUTH...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH HALF.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JCL