Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 40S BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
TRENDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THREE HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS INDICATES
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TODAY. AT THIS POINT STILL NO WINTER
WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES ANTICIPATED AS BOTH WRF/GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHUT OFF JUST
BEFORE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE MID
SOUTH. EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CST AS REGIONAL RADAR
TRENDS STILL INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL
RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS ARKANSAS. MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
RAINFALL SHOULD END BY NOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THIS EVENING. HIGHS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG RANGE...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...00Z ECMWF/GFS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THAN 24 HRS AGO. UPPER AIR PATTERN
FEATURES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
PLAINS WHILE A LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BECOMES CUT OFF
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT NO RAINFALL IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING TO THE
NORTH OF THE MID SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE
CUT OFF LOW EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-161200-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
416 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH HAS
REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL END ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.