Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 050958
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

MSC161-051008-
YALOBUSHA MS-
358 AM CST FRI JAN 5 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM CST FOR YALOBUSHA
COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED OR
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3416 8955 3388 8953 3393 8990 3414 8988

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE LOW HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING. SOME WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED IN
DECATUR COUNTY TN EARLIER THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL MS
OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS N MS BRINGING MORE RAIN INTO W TN...NE AR AND THE MO
BOOTHEEL. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD SIGNIFICANTLY. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR MOST AREAS
FROM THEIR CURRENT TEMPERATURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 606 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007)

DISCUSSION...

A WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
WHICH HAS CAUSED WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH MAINLY ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND NEAR 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM. CANNOT PINPOINT
THE EXTENT OF THE HIGHER WINDS SINCE AREA OBS INDICATE MUCH WEAKER
WINDS. HOWEVER...MEMPHIS...TUNICA...OLIVE BRANCH AND JACKSON TN HAVE
REPORTED THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.

AN UPDATE TO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN ORDER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL ALSO MONITOR THE WIND ADVISORY.

PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 144 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007)

DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS OF 01Z WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS STILL POSITIONED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. AN AREA OF RAIN
CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THIS IS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE UPPER JET OVER THE REGION AND GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE GFS APPEARS TO
HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE REGION AND
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAIN MAY COME TO AN END OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE 00Z. REGARDLESS...WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY CHANCES OVER MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS WITH SEVERAL
SURFACE OBS STILL REPORTING LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN AREA. ELSEWHERE...HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE AS THE RAIN SHIELD STEADILY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT JUST A LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH THE MAIN RAIN
SHIELD SO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL CONTINUE LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AS MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH THE DEEPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT COULD STILL SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.

SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FASTER IN
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (BRINGING IT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT) THAN THE NAM. THE GFS SHOWS QPF OVER THE REGION BY 12Z SAT
ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE AT ANY OF THE SIGNIFICANT
LEVELS. THE NAM SHOWS THIS AS WELL...BUT HAS THE QPF OVER THE
REGION WITH ITS TIMING OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND DOES SHOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. BY NO MEANS...NOT A LOT OF QPF. ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LOW CHANCE.

THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOGETHER WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO
THE UPPER JET WILL DRAG AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK
OF THIS LOW. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND ESCORT COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AREA. A COUPLE WEAK FRONTS COULD WORK THROUGH THE REGION BUT THERE
SHOULDNT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GENERALLY...HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD DOMINATE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  56  63  50  60 /  90  20  10  20
MKL  59  62  47  60 /  90  20  10  20
JBR  50  59  47  56 /  50  20  10  20
TUP  60  64  48  63 / 100  20  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 AM CST THU JAN 4 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051200-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
332 AM CST THU JAN 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM