Snow Advisory 4, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS44 KMAF 151023
WSWMAF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
423 AM CST THU FEB 15 2007

...THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

.THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED...
THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.

NMZ028-029-033-TXZ045>047-151130-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070215T1200Z/
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...SEMINOLE...
LAMESA...GAIL
423 AM CST THU FEB 15 2007 /323 AM MST THU FEB 15 2007/

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS CANCELLED THE
SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
THEREFORE THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
226 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER FAR WEST TEXAS...NORTHERN MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.  ENTRANCE REGION OF A
180+ KT H25 AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIKELY AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT TOO.  ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ENCOMPASSING A GOOD DEAL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH.

LOOKING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN.  THESE AREAS
APPEAR TO BE IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRIDITIC
ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
THINK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
LOCATIONS...SO WILL GO WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR EDDY...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL LEA...GAINES...DAWSON...AND BORDEN COUNTIES FROM 15/00Z TO
15/12Z.  THANKS FOR THE COORD LUB.

THINK THE THE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
DECREASE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH OF
A WARM LAYER TO INCLUDE SLEET WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER FROM
THE GUADALUPE TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.  THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSNOW OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...BUT DONT EXPECT ANYTHING TO LAST TOO LONG.
WILL TAPER POPS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO ADVISORY AREA.

WE WILL STAY WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOW FOR MIDLAND INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FOR THE 15TH OF FEBRUARY /11 DEGREES SET IN 1951/...BUT IT
WILL BE COLD.  MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS NORTH TO THE MID 30S
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

.LONG TERM...
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING
AS DECAYING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AS THE UPPER JET
AND UPPER  TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TOWARD MEXICO AND JET CONTINUES TO SAG
FURTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE STARTING
WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BY EARLY EVENING.

QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AS LEE SURFACE LOW FORMS IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEXT COLD FRONT STILL DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS TIME THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AS FAST MID LEVEL FLOW
NEAR THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS SHOULD HELP SCOUR THE COLD AIR
OUT AND AWAY. STILL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
BEYOND SATURDAY AT THIS POINT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
RAIN TO WESTERN SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. BEYOND MONDAY THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN DISAGREEMENT IN WHEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE BAJA VICINITY...WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. LEFT DRY FOR NOW BUT WEATHER WILL PROBABLY BE
NEED TO BE ADDED DOWN THE LINE ONCE BETTER TIMING OF SYSTEM
IS KNOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              21  42  25  64  /  30  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                24  45  24  66  /  50  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  30  47  28  64  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           25  47  28  67  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          21  43  29  60  /  30  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   21  39  23  65  /  60  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   23  53  17  63  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    21  40  24  63  /  30  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  21  41  25  61  /  30  20   0   0
WINK TX                    26  48  25  71  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES.

&&

67/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-152045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
244 PM CST WED FEB 14 2007 /144 PM MST WED FEB 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN MAINLY IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS TO THE WEST.

1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL FALL GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CARLSBAD TO HOBBS TO GAIL LINE TONIGHT.  AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...JAL...MIDLAND...AND GARDEN CITY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND