Snow Advisory 3, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
242 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER THE VAN HORN AREA INTO THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...UPPER TRANS
PECOS...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS MAY SEE SOMETHING SHORTLY
TOO.  THIS AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 170+ KT H25 JET
TRANSLATE EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE CWA.  CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER
SUNSET.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THIS EVENING AS
HEATING COMBINING WITH MID LEVEL WAA AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT.  THINK
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE RAPIDLY OVER TO SNOW IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS FOLLOWING
SUIT BY EARLY EVENING.  WILL GO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN BOTH MOUNTAIN
RANGES...ALTHOUGH THE EVENING SHIFT MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW BY 14/06Z...IF NOT 14/03Z OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS.  THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE THESE AREAS IN THE SNOW ADVISORY AS
ENOUGH PRECIPITATION LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
FURTHER TO THE EAST...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW...
WITH ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING TO AN INCH OR LESS.  THINK THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY IN THE FORM OF RAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW AS SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE ON LOWS TONIGHT
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.  SHOULD BE PLENTY
CHILLY BY DAYBREAK THOUGH WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S.

.LONG TERM...
PERIODIC SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS IN BEST PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND LIFT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THE ACTION LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ACTIVITY PICKING UP AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL NOT BE MET FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
BUT COULD AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SERIES OF WAVES
APPROACHES. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE SLOW MOVING
BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.
CONTINUED MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

QUICK AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING FRIDAY AS LEE SURFACE LOW FORMS IN
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEXT COLD FRONT DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR BELOW MEXMAF TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WITH CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH NEAR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE
ON SUNDAY AS A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN SYSTEM EJECTS. ZONAL DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              25  33  22  33  /  40  30  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                28  37  24  40  /  60  30  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  35  38  31  41  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           30  37  26  39  /  40  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          27  37  22  38  /  60  30  30  10
HOBBS NM                   25  30  22  32  /  60  40  50  20
MARFA TX                   28  41  25  42  /  60  20  20   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    26  34  22  33  /  50  20  40  30
ODESSA TX                  26  34  22  37  /  50  20  30  30
WINK TX                    29  37  25  38  /  60  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

67/12

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