Severe Thunderstorm Warning 509, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 062127
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

TXC043-062200-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0509.000000T0000Z-070906T2200Z/
BREWSTER TX-
428 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY...

AT 424 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SANDERSON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...EXTREME
EAST CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

LAT...LON 3012 10319 3016 10275 2997 10247 2980 10238
      2978 10257 2969 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 171DEG 15KT 2992 10258

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HENRIETTE REMNANTS ACRS SW NM AND CONTINUE TO BE SLOWLY ABSORBED
INTO SW MID LEVEL FLOW. EWD FROM HENRIETTE IS A THETA-E MINIMA ACRS
MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS. FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT THIS THETA-E
MINIMA WILL MOVE E AND MUCH RICHER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TRANS
PECOS...ESPECIALLY WRN PORTIONS. ACCORDINGLY SO EXPECT THAT THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE. FCST ALREADY HAS THIS TREND...BUT
WILL OPT TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE DEEPER INTO SCATTERED CATEGORY
AND MAY TREND DOWN POPS IN THE N-NE. ALSO WILL KEEP TEMPS TOWARD
THE WARM SIDE WITH DWPNTS SO HIGH. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE PRESENCE AND IT IS THOUGHT THAT IT WILL SLOW HENRIETTE/S
MOVEMENT EWD FRI. MEANWHILE PASSING SHRTWV TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PUSH COLD FRONT S WITH BOUNDARY NEARING NRN CWFA BY
00Z/SAT. RICHER/DEEPER THETA-E AIR WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO MOVE EWD ORIENTING SOMEWHAT ALONG FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIEST POPS (LOW END SCT) NRN 1/3 CWFA FRI. CONVECTION ALONG FRONT
ACRS S PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH FRONT S SOME...BUT WILL STILL BE N
OF KMAF BY 12Z/SAT. 5H FLOW WILL BE VEERED TO W...THUS RICHER
THETA-E AIR WILL REMAIN N AND POPS WILL REMAIN LOW END ACRS MUCH
OF THE CWFA S OF KMAF INTO SAT A.M.. OF INTEREST SAT P.M. IS
PROGGED APPROACH OF SHRTWV TROF N OF BOUNDARY WITH 5H THETA-E
RIDGE IN PLACE. THINK THAT SAT INTO SUN MORNING WILL BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ACRS CWFA (30% W/CENTRAL AND 40% N). THRU ALL
THIS NAM/GFS ARE INCONSISTENT IN QPF OUTPUT AND AT TIMES ARE
INCONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE DERIVED MOS. DRIER MID LEVEL
THETA-E AIR WILL HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO WORK INTO AREA SUN P.M. AND
WILL DECREASE POPS. MON NW MID LEVEL FLOW RETURNS WITH WELL
DEFINED COLD FRONT NEARING CWFA. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE HOT/DRY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH EXCEPTION IN THE
FAR NE. GFS ADVERTISES COLD FRONT TO SLAM THRU CWFA BY 12Z TUE
(ECMWF LESS SO) WITH POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION.
NOTABLY COOLER TUE WITH DECREASING CLOUDS/POPS IN THE DAY. BY WED
MORNING SFC HIGH CENTERED ACRS PB PER GFS. THIS WITH DRY AIR IS
SETTING UP FOR AN UN-SEASONALLY COOL MORNING. NW MID LEVEL FLOW
MAY HOLD INTO THUR BUT LOW LEVEL MSTR RETURN LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              73  89  72  87  /  20  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                71  92  69  93  /  30  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  73  91  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  92  72  91  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  88  68  89  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   74  92  69  91  /  30  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   63  87  63  86  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  90  72  89  /  20  20  20  30
ODESSA TX                  76  91  73  91  /  20  20  20  30
WINK TX                    75  96  75  96  /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
211 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007 /111 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY...
THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SINCE STORM MOTION WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO KEEP
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM REMAINING OVER ANY ONE AREA
VERY LONG...ONLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE AREA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...THEREFORE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING INCIDENTS AND ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND