Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...
DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...MEANING A SHEAR AXIS TO
THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...THE FORECAST REMAINS
DIFFICULT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY LAST NIGHT AND THE RED RIVER TODAY.  A SURFACE
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...OR MCV...TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AND ANOTHER THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TOPPING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
COLORADO.

THINK WE WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXIST OVER
THESE AREAS...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE HAS STRENGTHENED THERE SINCE
YESTERDAY.  OTHERWISE...WOULD HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS.  MAY ALSO
SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS THAT
DEVELOP FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  LAPSE RATES ARE
ONLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERE THOUGH...AND NOT SURE WE/LL SEE MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED STORMS THERE THROUGH 27/00Z WITHOUT SOME MID LEVEL
SUPPORT DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO STRENGTHENING THERE.  STILL WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN BOTH AREAS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  DESTABILIZATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE UPPER
RIDGE...SHOULD AID DEVELOPMENT THERE.  THINK AN MCS WILL FORM BY
EVENING...THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  HAVE GONE WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NAM AND SLOWER GFS ON THE TIMING OF
THIS EVENTUAL MCS...WHICH CONSTITUTED RAISING POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS MCS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT HAIL WITHIN THE
EXPECTED AREA OF CONVECTION.  WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...IN THE HWO.  THINK THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE CWA BY MORNING...SO COOLED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
THERE...IN ADDITION TO A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WESTERN CWA WHERE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD AID COOLING.

.LONG TERM...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AID IN DEVELOPING
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORED
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. MID-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO
BE STRONGEST OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WHILE WEAKENING. MID-LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS...AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVES SOUTH. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN OR DISLODGE THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A
REMNANT SHEAR AXIS MAY REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND POSSIBLY
INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW AND FOR NOW...WE WILL GO WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF VERIFY IN DEPICTING AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN COAHUILA MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WOULD NEED TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  84  67  85  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                68  93  70  91  /  30  30  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  75  91  72  89  /  20  30  50  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  90  70  89  /  20  30  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  86  66  85  /  20  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                   68  92  68  91  /  30  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   60  87  63  83  /  20  30  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  88  68  88  /  30  30  30  30
ODESSA TX                  73  88  69  86  /  30  30  30  30
WINK TX                    75  94  71  93  /  30  30  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

67/06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007 /135 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...A
FEW OF THEM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
BOUNDARY.  SEVERE STORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...TO THE BIG BEND REGION AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND LOWER TRANS PECOS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
834 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

NMZ028-029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-270400-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-
UPTON-REAGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...
ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...
RANKIN...BIG LAKE
834 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007 /734 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007/

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT 820 PM CDT...THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS EXTENDED ALONG A LINE FROM VAUGHN NEW
MEXICO...TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO...TO MULESHOE AND LITTLEFIELD
TEXAS...TO NEAR SILVERTON AND PLAINVIEW TEXAS. THIS LINE OF STORMS
IS PUSHING SOUTH AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN LEA AND EDDY COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BETWEEN 830 PM AND 900 PM MDT...AND THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...INCLUDING GAINES...DAWSON...BORDEN...AND
SCURRY COUNTIES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1030 PM CDT. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS HAS ALREADY HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL 1 AM CDT...OR MIDNIGHT MDT. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THIS LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES. BE PREPARED TO TAKE
QUICK ACTION AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1008 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

NMZ028-270415-
EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
908 PM MDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN EDDY COUNTY...

STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM A VERY INTENSE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ACROSS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO EDDY COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM MDT. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT 40 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH IN THE
ARTESIA...LAKEWOOD...HOPE...LOCO HILLS AREAS...POSSIBLY REACHING
CARLSBAD BY 1000 PM.

IN ADDITION...EXPECT BLOWING DUST TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.