Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 030651
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXC165-030715-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-070603T0715Z/
GAINES TX-
150 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR EASTERN GAINES COUNTY...

AT 146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRVIEW...OR ABOUT 18 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SEMINOLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR
WEST TEXAS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3254 10224 3252 10249 3285 10258 3293 10224

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...
A COMPARISON OF WRF AND GFS SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROGGED ACROSS THE CWA
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE HANDLING OF MOISTURE FIELDS
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  WHILE BOTH MODELS PROG DRY AIR OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN CURRENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE GFS SHOWS DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS LIKELY TOO
DRY.  IN CONTRAST...THE WRF PROGS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET.

CURRENT SPC INFORMATION PLACES THE SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA.  THIS IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES AS
SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FARTHER SOUTH BOUNDARY IS
NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS ANDREWS...MARTIN...AND HOWARD COUNTIES
MOVING SOUTHWARD WHILE THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND
IS DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS WHERE THE PRIMARY AREA
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP.  IF YOU BELIEVE THE WRF
PROG...THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THIS NORTHERN AREA AS WELL...AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EVENING OR OVERNIGHT MCS..PRIMARILY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST CWA.  SINCE THE CAP IS MUCH STRONGER FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS COULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE FARTHER
SOUTH BOUNDARY.  AREAS FARTHER NORTH WILL HAVE LESS OF A CAP.  THE
WRF SHOWS THE CAP ERODING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...THUS WILL LEAD TOWARDS THE WRF SOLUTION.

THE WRF ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WE COULD SEE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING SOUTHWARD...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR
CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PERMIAN.

OVERALL...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PERMIAN AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EVENING HOURS.  WITH CAPE VALUES PROGGED IN THE IN THE 2500-3000
J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN BOUNDARY...WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE AS WELL FOR AREAS
OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA.  FOR OTHER AREAS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUED TO INCLUDE LOWER ORDER POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THINKING THAT MOST AREAS WILL REMAINED
CAPPED.  HOWEVER...IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THE CAP BREAKS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS
REACHING SEVERE LEVELS BASED ON EXPECTED INSTABILITY IN THE MODERATE
TO HIGH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...
WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...A CHANCE
OF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST.  LEFT OVER
BOUNDARIES FROM EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LATER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

A PATTERN CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED BY MID WEEK...AS WE BEGIN TO WORK
OUR WAY TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.  DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE CWA.  THE DRIER WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  88  67  90  /  30  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                69  95  69  93  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72  97  71  96  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  99  70  93  /  10  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  91  64  90  /  10  20  20  30
HOBBS NM                   67  93  65  92  /  20  30  30  30
MARFA TX                   52  94  58  89  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  92  69  92  /  20  20  30  30
ODESSA TX                  67  93  68  93  /  20  20  30  30
WINK TX                    70 101  68  97  /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
119 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-031830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
119 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007 /1219 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FAVORED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST FAVORED AREA WILL FROM BETWEEN HOBBS TO
SNYDER INTO THE MIDLAND/ODESSA VICINITY. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCAL
GROUPS IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN MAY BE NEEDED BY
THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND