Severe Thunderstorm Warning 298, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
152 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK IN
THE PLAINS. MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXCEEDING AN INCH. UPPER LOW SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DROPPING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO HELP
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ENHANCE LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN.
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE MOUNTAINS OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
EVOLVE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...BRINGING RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE
AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTERNOON CAPES ARE ESTIMATED TO EXCEED 2000 J KG-1 WITH
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERRODING UNDER GOOD SUNSHINE. STRONG
UPDRAFTS WILL BE SUPPORTED...THOUGH BULK SHEARS AROUND 30 KNOTS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SHORT LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

BIGGER THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. THOUGH MOST AREAS CAN
EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN...THERE WILL BE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. COVERAGE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THOUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION
SOMEWHAT... CONVERGENCE ON DRYLINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TO THE BIG BEND. ONCE
AGAIN... SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO
MANAGE TO FIRE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT FRONT WILL
STALL OUT SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINLY ENTERS THE FORECAST AT THAT POINT AS THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AMONG MODELS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE FRONT
AND UPPER FORCING. THE DEGREE TO WHICH CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT
DISPLACES THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
WILL GO WITH A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY FRONT SCENARIO. MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              84  63  91  64  /  30  70  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                91  59  96  61  /  40  10   0  20
DRYDEN TX                  86  62  92  65  /  30  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  95  61  /  40  40  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          86  63  92  63  /  30  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   84  57  96  59  /  50  30  10  30
MARFA TX                   81  51  87  51  /  40  20  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  60  92  62  /  40  60  10  30
ODESSA TX                  86  60  93  62  /  40  60  10  30
WINK TX                    90  60 100  63  /  50  40  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-291800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007 /1159 AM MDT MON MAY 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN...HOWEVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION AS WELL.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SATURATED GROUNDS...FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH ANY ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
952 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXZ052-290345-
HOWARD-
952 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHERN HOWARD COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOMAX AT 952
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  THIS STORM SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF BIG
SPRING.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXZ046-290400-
DAWSON-
1006 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HANCOCK AT 1006 PM CDT. THE
STORM IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.  LAMESA IS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

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