Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2007, 3:05 PM CDT for Presidio County, Texas. It was in force for 55 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2007, 3:05 PM CDT (20:05 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2007, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Presidio County, TX
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 3:15 PM CDT | HAIL 0.75 | Marfa, TX |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 268 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 134 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -293 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1650 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 17 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS54 KMAF 152005 SVRMAF TXC377-152100- /O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0251.070515T2005Z-070515T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARFA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... MARFA DURING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... THE BEST PROTECTION CAN BE FOUND IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220. LAT...LON 3005 10434 3043 10409 3038 10380 2986 10381 $$
1 follow-up statement
000 WWUS54 KMAF 152033 SVSMAF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TXC377-152100- /O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0251.000000T0000Z-070515T2100Z/ PRESIDIO TX- 329 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY... AT 315 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF MARFA. AT 328 PM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MARFA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... HIGHWAY 90 EAST OF MARFA TO THE COUNTY BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF HIGH WATER IN LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS LIKELY. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220. LAT...LON 3005 10434 3043 10409 3038 10380 2986 10381 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 2:22 PM CDT, 43 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:22 PM CDT, 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 222 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .SHORT TERM... RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR/DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE TRANS PECOS AS OF 1 PM CDT. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S. EASTERLY WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE NOTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF JEFF DAVIS COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE TRANS PECOS REGION TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN TONIGHT...WITH MODELS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEVELOPING ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND THE NEW 12Z ECMWF (VIA 850-700 MB RH PROGS) THAT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY TRY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION CHANCES GOING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LIKELY CHANCES CONFINED TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS. HAVE CORRESPONDED HIGHEST QPF ACROSS THESE SAME LOCATIONS TONIGHT. IF MCS DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...HEAVY RAINS MAY CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM. BRIEF HIGH WINDS COULD AFFECT GUADALUPE PASS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS FLOW BECOMES ENHANCED THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN GAPS. HIGH WINDS SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A HIGH WIND WARNING. MIN TEMP...WIND...AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. .LONG TERM... COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE LOCATIONS TOO WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS A PARADE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUES TO ROUND...OR GO THROUGH...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL STAY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE EMPHASIS FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT DUE THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THINKING. THE LATEST GFS STILL INSISTS ON PROPAGATING AN MCS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTEAD PREFER THE ECMWF IDEA OF KEEPING THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THINK WE COULD STILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL...AND SOME OF THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN THE GFS IS DISPLAYING. DESPITE PREFERRING THE ECMWF...THE NAM MAY ALSO END UP CORRECT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EVEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH WEST/SOUTH FOR THIS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH/ SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE VAN HORN AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...DAVIS MOUNTAINS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...AND BIG BEND REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THINK THE EVENTUAL ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD OCCUR...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME FOR ONE NOW. FOR THURSDAY AND ONWARD...THE COOLER AIRMASS LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING EASTWARD. SINCE THE FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SEMI PERMANENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED...BUT WILL SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS PORTEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 58 67 53 67 / 30 30 40 40 CARLSBAD NM 57 63 55 66 / 50 60 50 50 DRYDEN TX 65 76 62 73 / 30 50 50 50 FORT STOCKTON TX 60 72 57 72 / 40 50 50 50 GUADALUPE PASS TX 54 62 49 64 / 60 60 50 40 HOBBS NM 55 66 52 67 / 40 50 40 40 MARFA TX 55 73 53 68 / 40 60 60 50 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 57 66 53 67 / 40 50 40 40 ODESSA TX 56 66 55 68 / 40 50 40 40 WINK TX 62 67 58 71 / 50 50 40 50 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 21/67
Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 2:21 PM CDT, 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 221 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-161930- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 221 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 /121 PM MDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE MARFA PLATEAU... THE PRESIDIO VALLEY...THE BIG BEND...AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FLOODING TO DEVELOP. LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS GAP LOCATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GUADALUPE PASS...LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING MOST AREAS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. LOCATIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH/ SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE VAN HORN AREA...DAVIS MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY...AND BIG BEND REGION APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...ALONG THE RIO GRANDE COULD OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 15, 1:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TXZ074-151915- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT... THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES WEST OF FORT DAVIS IN OPEN COUNTRY AT 109 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY. GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
Special weather statement, May 15, 3:02 PM CDT, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TXZ080-152100- MARFA PLATEAU- 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT... THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARFA AT 302 PM CDT. THE NEARLY STATIONARY. STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY. HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. PEOPLE IN CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MARFA AND NULL...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Jeff Davis | 53 min |
| May 15, 1:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Presidio | 63 min |
| May 15, 4:12 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster | 63 min |
| May 15, 5:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster | 66 min |
| May 15, 6:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MAF | Brewster | 55 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2007Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.