Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 092209
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
508 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

NMC015-TXC109-092218-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-070509T2230Z/
EDDY NM-CULBERSON TX-
508 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON AND
SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 508 PM CDT(408 PM MDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THAT THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED. THERE ARE STILL STORMS IN 
VICINITY OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY 
RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3203 10478 3160 10450 3154 10408 3191 10404
      3219 10451

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
334 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW INVOF KELP AT THIS TIME IS OPENING INTO A TROUGH AND
IS BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EAST AS AN UPSTREAM KICKER APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 3 CM...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE LIFT AS SHOWN THROUGH MIDLEVEL Q VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL PRIMARILY ACROSS
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS OUT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE
IN PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT THROUGH 06Z AND HAVE CLEARED EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES
OF NEW MEXICO AND CULBERSON COUNTY TEXAS FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...CLEARING BENEATH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
BENEATH THE LOW HAS CLEARED THINGS OUT A BIT...AND WITH THE
INCREASED INSOLATION MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY BE REALIZED.
COLDER MIDTROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE SHEAR OVER THE BIG BEND EAST TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
MAY SUPPORT STORMSCALE ROTATION AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE...WITH LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. HAVE
MAINTAINED POSITIVE MENTION OF SEVERE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...BUT WE EXPECT TO SEE THINGS WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS SENSIBLE HEAT LOSS STABILIZES THE PBL.

GREATEST POPS WERE DRAWN OVER THE EAST...WITH QPF OVER A HALF INCH
OVER THESE AREAS LIKELY. ISOLATED AMOUNTS WELL OVER AN INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS EVENT. WX GRIDS
WERE DRAWN TO MATCH...WITH MODERATE/HEAVY INTENSITY INDICATED
WHERE 6HR QPF EXCEEDS 0.10 INCH/0.30 INCH...RESPECTIVELY. POP AND
QPF ARE THROTTLED DOWN AFTER 06Z...BUT HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF
AREAS OF FOG BEFORE SUNRISE AS CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
LOW T/TD SPREADS FAVOR MENTION OF FOG. NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD
FOR TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
NOW FROM THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PLATE...A MINOR TROUGH PIVOTING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY INDUCE
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO GIVE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ANOTHER SHOT OF TSRA
TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE THIS LOOKS TO BE IT FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF SAME
IN THIS FORECAST. A MINOR TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE ALOFT THIS WEEKEND...ENOUGH TO KEEP A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WE DONT GET BACK INTO A
SURFACE PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF WEST TEXAS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WHEN FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE LEE
TROUGHINESS...AND THIS IN TURN WILL SET UP A SURFACE TROUGH AND
DRYLINE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.  BEARS WATCH.

OVERALL...SAW LITTLE NEED TO DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE MODEL
OFFERINGS THIS MORNING. WE DID RAISE DEWPOINTS AND LOWER HIGHS A
TOUCH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND
EVAPORATION EFFECTS. OTHERWISE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFS MOS WAS
USED THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              56  78  58  78  /  50  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  84  58  84  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  83  62  84  /  70  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  81  60  81  /  40  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  81  57  81  /  20  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   54  81  58  82  /  20  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   46  79  49  79  /  30  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  80  59  82  /  40  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  56  80  59  82  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    56  83  60  85  /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...
     BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...
     ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA
     PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

70/70

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-102015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
315 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007 /215 PM MDT WED MAY 9 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VAN
HORN...FORT DAVIS...FORT STOCKTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
344 PM CDT WED MAY 9 2007

NMZ027-028-092145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
244 PM MDT WED MAY 9 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF QUEEN AT 244 PM
MDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.