Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

.UPDATE...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS
TIME. TORNADO WATCH 198 HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED. HAVE UPDATED HAZARD
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS UPPED POP/QPF GRIDS AND ADJUSTED
WX AND SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  75  61  87  /  80  70  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                58  85  58  89  /  50  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  83  64  87  / 100  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  83  63  88  /  90  40  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  81  59  84  /  50  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  82  60  85  /  60  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   51  79  50  84  /  60  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  79  60  86  /  80  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  60  81  61  87  /  80  50  20  10
WINK TX                    60  87  60  92  /  80  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...
     TERRELL.

&&

49/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-292100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1153 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2007 /1053 AM MDT SUN APR 29 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR THE BIG BEND...THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU...AND THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS.

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ALSO WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND INCREASED WIND SHEAR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OVER AN INCH PER HOUR MAY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING OF ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. LASTLY...RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE FROM CANDELARIA
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK TO SANDERSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER BY MID MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

TXZ068-069-075-291700-
CRANE-PECOS-UPTON-
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN CRANE AND SOUTHWESTERN UPTON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BAKERSFIELD AT 1057 AM CDT...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.

05