Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS84 KMAF 232032
RFWMAF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WEST AND NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER
TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR REGION...DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH OR
GREATER ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER...MINIMUM RH/S OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FOR 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH OR GREATER ALONG WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OR GREATER...
MINIMUM RH/S OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER...

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ALONG
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS BEHIND
A PACIFIC FRONT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. THESE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS... INCLUDING STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...WILL SPREAD EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NMZ115-TXZ045-050-057>060-067-074-080-240300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0002.070224T1800Z-070225T0000Z/
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GAINES-ANDREWS-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-WARD-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
232 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007 /132 PM MST FRI FEB 23 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DO NOT THROW CIGARETTES ONTO THE GROUND OR OUT OF A MOVING
VEHICLE. KEEP VEHICLES ON DRIVING SURFACES...AND DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH TALL GRASS. AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT MAY PRODUCE OUTDOOR
FLAMES OR SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GROW INTO DANGEROUS...WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

$$

NMZ114-TXZ258-240300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T0300Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
132 PM MST FRI FEB 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

THE COMBINATION OF 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS...SUCH AS WELDING. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO DANGEROUS WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

$$

TXZ046>048-051>053-061>063-068>070-075-079-081-082-240300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.A.0002.070224T1800Z-070225T0000Z/
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-BIG BEND AREA-
TERRELL-
232 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 45
MPH...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED E WITH 7H-5H WINDS INCREASING IN ITS
WAKE. SFC REFLECTION IS NOTED ACRS ERN NM AS SEEN IN ORGANIZING
LEE TROF IN MSAS DATA. E ACRS PB LOW LEVEL MSTR IS MAKING A RETURN
WITH DWPNTS AS HIGH AS 11C AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED WELL SE OF THE
CWFA. AS LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS A.M. EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAKE INTO PB. FARTHER W INTO THE UPPER TRANS PECOS LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS NOTABLY LOWER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. ALL THIS TO
SAY THAT THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN TODAY AS IT MOVES/MIXES E. DEEP
MIXING/STEEP LR/S/STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL FACILITATE A
RATHER FAR EWD POSITION OF DRYLINE BY 00Z. STILL WITH 5H LOW
MOVING INTO NRN NM LATER TODAY ASSOCD MID LEVEL HGHT FALLS WILL
COMMENCE. THIS WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF LLJ VERY EARLY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THAT DRYLINE WILL STALL AND PROBABLY MOVE W BEFORE PACIFIC
FRONT MERGES WITH DRYLINE AND THEN ABRUPTLY MOVE E. EVEN THOUGH IT
IS CERTAINLY HARD TO HOLD LOW LEVEL MSTR IN THIS FAR W THIS TIME
OF YEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME FROM AROUND 22Z-05Z WHERE
MSTR/INSTABILITY/LIFT ARE SUFFICIENT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT TSTMS.
NO DOUBT SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE TSTMS AND WILL OPT TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE IN AGREEMENT WITH SWODY1. AFTER 06Z
DRIER W WINDS WILL INVADE THE E. FARTHER W INTO THE DRY AIR HIGH
WINDS ARE A CONCERN AS 5H SPEED MAX OF 70-75KTS IS NEAR THE MTNS
BY 18Z AND WITH GOOD MIXING WILL OPT UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING FROM THE GDP MTNS TO VAN HORN TO DAVIS MTNS. WINDS IN
THE ADJACENT PLAINS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALSO...AND HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR SE PLAINS. WILL MENTION
BLDU ACRS THE W. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL FOR TODAY/S
HIGH TEMPS ESPECIALLY W. THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS ACRS THE W IN
ASSOCN WITH LEE ENHANCEMENT /MTN WAVE BUT WITH 85H TEMPS OF 18-22C
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS HIGH TEMPS FROM U70S IN PB TO N90 ALONG RIO
GRANDE ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...
THE WIND MACHINE WILL BE IN HIGH GEAR SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AID FROM
DEEP MIXING AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO
TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES DURING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND
EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO ALSO INCLUDE THE MARFA PLATEAU.
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WATCH INTACT SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS AND ALSO THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST A HIGH END WIND ADVISORY THAT WILL FLIRT
WITH HIGH WIND...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE WHETHER TO
EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS.

MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE. WINDY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED SEVERAL DAYS
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FLOW. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE WEEK COURTESY OF SEVERAL
UPPER LOWS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. STRONG FLOW
ACROSS THE ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP THE MUCH COOLER AIR AWAY FROM
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SOME DEEPER COLDER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF. AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE EARLY DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO
ERN PB THIS AFTERNOON. W OF THE DRYLINE VERY LOW DWPNTS WILL BE IN
PLACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR FURTHER AND MIN RH/S BLO
15% SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM ACRS THE W. MODEL BLEND OF HAINES INDICES
GIVES ABOUT A 5-MODERATE TODAY AND WILL GENERALLY GO WITH THIS. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL UPGRADE
TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR MTNS/SE PLAINS/NW/W PB. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED SAT WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM. IT WILL BE COOLER AND SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT
WHETHER IT WILL BE TOO COOL IN THE MTNS FOR RH TO DROP BLO 15%. FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA SAT AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGE ATTP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              75  47  63  33  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                78  44  65  32  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  83  47  71  40  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  46  67  38  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  36  52  34  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   77  41  62  33  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   74  35  57  26  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    77  43  63  34  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  77  44  64  34  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    84  42  69  34  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 AM MST
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN
     LEA COUNTY.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
     TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     WINKLER.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...BIG BEND AREA...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
     LOVING...MIDLAND...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER
     TRANS PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 AM
     CST /8 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN
     HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 9 PM CST /8
     PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...REEVES COUNTY AND
     UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...
     WARD...WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
     SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...GAINES...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MITCHELL...
     SCURRY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
520 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-232200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
520 AM CST FRI FEB 23 2007 /420 AM MST FRI FEB 23 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...ALONG
AND EAST OF A GAIL...BIG SPRING...MIDKIFF...TO IRAAN LINE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IN ADDITION BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 70 MPH IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR
TODAY IN THE EDDY AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO PLAINS.

INCREASING WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HIGH
FIRE DANGER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR REGION...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER
75 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
ACROSS THE EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS...WEST WINDS
OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS.

AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
AS WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL
BELOW A MILE LOCALLY IN DUST PRONE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND