High Wind Watch 14, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2007

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING
ALL THE WIND THE LAST TWO DAYS MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS MOVEMENT WILL PUT US INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW LATER TODAY. THE PACIFIC FRONT HAS
MOVED EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR...NOTHING MORE.

THERE ARE SEVERAL POSITIVE INDICATORS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.
THESE INCLUDE A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...GOOD JET
DYNAMICS...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION DROPS OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE FOR KGDP ALONG WITH
A LOOK AT CROSS SECTIONS AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SUGGEST ANOTHER
HIGH WIND EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS OF WEST
TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE EAST OF THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAYTIME HEATING AND A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. POPS FOR THE MENTIONED PERIOD HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY INTO THE 20-40% RANGE. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE UPCOMING HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ACTIVE BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHILE VERY DRY AIR WILL BE WELL IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE OF CONCERN IN
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY ARE TOYING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA EVEN NOW.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...THE LACK OF ANY SORT OF SIGNIFICANT
MSLP GRADIENT OR UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL
LEAVE WINDS BELOW 15 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO KEEP WINDS UP ABOVE
RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS ONLY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND UPPER
TRANS PECOS REGION. MINIMUM RH/S ARE EXPECTED TO DROP JUST BELOW
15%...HOWEVER SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH FOR LONGER THAN 3
HOURS REMAINS IN DOUBT AT THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOCATIONS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              81  60  85  59  /   0   0  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                84  51  86  59  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  87  62  87  65  /   0  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  61  89  63  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  55  81  53  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   82  54  88  56  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   78  45  81  49  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  57  86  61  /   0   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  82  58  88  62  /   0   0  20  20
WINK TX                    92  58  91  62  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

74/06

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