Freeze Warning 3, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS74 KMAF 151026
NPWMAF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
426 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007

...LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH GUADALUPE
PASS THROUGH MID MORNING...

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH 800 AM
CST...

.A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE VERY STRONG NORTHEAST GAP WINDS THROUGH
GUADALUPE PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS WILL REMAIN AT 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE LATE THIS MORNING.

AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WINDS TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT WINDS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A
DRY...COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH OF A LINE FROM JAL...TO BIG SPRING...TO
COLORADO CITY.

NMZ033-034-TXZ045>047-050-051-151400-
/O.CON.KMAF.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-071115T1400Z/
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-BORDEN-
ANDREWS-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...ANDREWS...STANTON
426 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007 /326 AM MST THU NOV 15 2007/

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/
THIS MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ THIS
MORNING. 

CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY...COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
JAL...TO BIG SPRING...TO COLORADO CITY LINE.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

TXZ258-151500-
/O.CON.KMAF.HW.W.0032.000000T0000Z-071115T1500Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
326 AM MST THU NOV 15 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS
MORNING...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS
MORNING. 

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE IN THE GUADALUPE PASS AREA THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING.  SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST NORTH OF VAN HORN TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...THEN EAST TO SANDERSON AT 14/20Z.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.  ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHED 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WIND SPEEDS...FOR THE MOST PART...REMAINED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY.  WIND
SPEEDS WERE ON THE WAY UP IN GUADALUPE PASS...AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AFTER NIGHTFALL AS DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL AID
FUNNELING OF AIR THROUGH THE PASS.  WIND SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH ANTICIPATED IN GUADALUPE PASS OVERNIGHT AND
AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND
WARNING GOING THERE.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  THINK
WIND SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF OVER LEA COUNTY AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...AREAS WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH.  SINCE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN MODEL AND MOS DATA...THEYLL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS THERE
BY THURSDAY MORNING.  SINCE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THESE AREAS...
THINK WE COULD SEE MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S.  WILL GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEA...GAINES...
DAWSON...BORDEN...ANDREWS AND MARTIN COUNTIES.  THINK WIND SPEEDS
WILL STAY UP ENOUGH OVER THE REST OF THE NORTHERN CWA TO PREVENT A
HARD FREEZE FROM OCCURRING... WHILE MID AND HIGH CLOUD ALONG WITH
SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 5 TO 10 KT FURTHER SOUTH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA LURCHES
EASTWARD.  THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.  WILL
LEAVE THE TOKEN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER THE WEST AND FRIDAY OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.  HAVE FOLLOWED
THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS WE WILL WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.  TEMPERATURES NEXT WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE TO BE
COOLED...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON A COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF SAID UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              32  60  39  71  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                32  62  38  71  /   0   0  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  46  62  41  70  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  61  45  72  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  57  41  62  /   0   0  10  20
HOBBS NM                   27  61  37  72  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   38  56  34  65  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  60  38  72  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  34  60  38  71  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    34  63  38  76  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...DAWSON...GAINES...MARTIN.

&&

99/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-152100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
256 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007 /156 PM MST WED NOV 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
GUADALUPE PASS. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 65 MPH.

A FREEZE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEA
COUNTY IN NEW MEXICO...AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN. EXPECT TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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