Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Watches in 2007
Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this flash flood watch at Aug 1, 2007, 5:19 AM CDT for 19 counties in Texas; Eddy County, Lea County, New Mexico. It was in force for 62 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 1, 2007, 5:19 AM CDT (10:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2007, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 62 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
- Flood severity
- None
All 21 counties
Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Andrews County, TX, Borden County, TX, Crane County, TX, Dawson County, TX, Ector County, TX, Gaines County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Loving County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 10.3 hours before the alert went out and 10 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1848 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -19 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 919 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 90 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS64 KMAF 011020 FFAMAF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 519 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...MARFA PLATEAU...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT... .AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST SO DOES THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND MARFA PLATEAU NORTH INTO EDDY COUNTY. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING. NMZ027-TXZ057-074-079-080-258-011830- /O.EXP.KMAF.FF.A.0012.000000T0000Z-070801T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KMAF.FF.A.0013.070801T1019Z-070802T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...VAN HORN...ALPINE...PRESIDIO... MARFA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 519 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /419 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS HAS DRIFTED WEST AND WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS MAY BEGIN TO RUN RAPIDLY WITHOUT RAINFALL DIRECTLY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHER AREA CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA OR UPSTREAM. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$ NMZ028-TXZ058-075-081-082-011130- /O.EXP.KMAF.FF.A.0012.000000T0000Z-070801T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-PECOS- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD... CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...PECOS...FORT STOCKTON...BIG BEND NP... MARATHON...SANDERSON 519 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /419 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS HAS BEEN ALLOWED EXPIRED. $$
6 follow-up statements
000 WGUS64 KMAF 011336 FFAMAF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 836 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...MARFA PLATEAU...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE MOISTURE...SHIFTS TO THE WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND MARFA PLATEAU... NORTH INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. NMZ027-TXZ057-074-079-080-258-012215- /O.CON.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070802T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...VAN HORN...ALPINE...PRESIDIO... MARFA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 836 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /736 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND TH ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS MAY BEGIN TO RUN RAPIDLY WITHOUT RAINFALL DIRECTLY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHER AREA CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA OR UPSTREAM. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
000 WGUS64 KMAF 011941 FFAMAF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 241 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST TEXAS MOUNTAINS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...MARFA PLATEAU...BIG BEND REGION AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT... .AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS MOVES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE. SINCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE BIG BEND REGION AND PRESIDIO VALLEY...NORTHWARD TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. TXZ081-021100- /O.EXB.KMAF.FF.A.0013.070801T2000Z-070802T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BIG BEND AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON 241 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA...BIG BEND AREA. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * A MOIST AND UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS MAY BEGIN TO RUN RAPIDLY WITHOUT RAINFALL DIRECTLY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHER AREA CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA OR UPSTREAM. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$ NMZ027-TXZ057-074-079-080-258-021100- /O.EXT.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070802T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...VAN HORN...ALPINE...PRESIDIO... MARFA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 241 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /141 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT * AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS MAY BEGIN TO RUN RAPIDLY WITHOUT RAINFALL DIRECTLY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHER AREA CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA OR UPSTREAM. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
000 WGUS64 KMAF 021018 FFAMAF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 518 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PERMIAN BASIN...THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS... THE PRESIDIO VALLEY...THE MARFA PLATEAU...THE BIG BEND REGION... AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS... .A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE HAS COMBINED WITH RICH MOISTURE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN. AS THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL ALSO TEND TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE AND CAUTION IS ADVISED AND TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. NMZ028-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-058>063-067>070-075-082-030000- /O.EXB.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070803T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-ANDREWS-MARTIN-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING- WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-PECOS- TERRELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD... CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL... SEMINOLE...LAMESA...ANDREWS...STANTON...PECOS...MENTONE... RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY... MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...FORT STOCKTON... SANDERSON 518 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 /418 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. IN TEXAS...ANDREWS...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR... GAINES...GLASSCOCK...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...PECOS... REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL... UPTON...WARD AND WINKLER. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS AND EVEN CITY STREETS MAY RUN RAPIDLY WITH DEEP WATER. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$ NMZ027-TXZ057-074-079>081-258-030000- /O.EXT.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070803T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...VAN HORN...ALPINE...PRESIDIO... MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP... PINE SPRINGS 518 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 /418 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR. * THROUGH THIS EVENING * DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS MAY BEGIN TO RUN RAPIDLY WITHOUT RAINFALL DIRECTLY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. IN ADDITION...RAPID RISES ON THE RIO GRANDE AND OTHER AREA CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA OR UPSTREAM. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
000 WGUS64 KMAF 021943 FFAMAF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 243 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... .A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH RICH MOISTURE TO CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL ALSO MOVE WESTWARD...GIVING LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PECOS RIVER THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. SINCE SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AS ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS PER HOUR...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD DUMP 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN AN HOUR. NMZ029-TXZ047-048-052-053-030700- /O.EXB.KMAF.FF.A.0013.070802T2000Z-070803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-BORDEN-SCURRY-HOWARD-MITCHELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TATUM...GAIL...SNYDER...BIG SPRING... COLORADO CITY 243 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 /143 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND/ODESSA HAS EXPANDED THE * FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY. IN WEST TEXAS...BORDEN... HOWARD...MITCHELL AND SCURRY. * THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * STREAMS AND EVEN CITY STREETS MAY RUN RAPIDLY WITH DEEP WATER. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$ NMZ027-028-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-030700- /O.EXT.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-DAWSON-ANDREWS- MARTIN-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD... CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL... SEMINOLE...LAMESA...ANDREWS...STANTON...VAN HORN...PECOS... MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND... GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE... ALPINE...FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO...MARFA...BIG BEND NP... MARATHON...SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 243 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 /143 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. IN TEXAS...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR... GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY... REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL... UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD AND WINKLER. * THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING * DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS AND EVEN CITY STREETS MAY RUN RAPIDLY WITH DEEP WATER. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
000 WGUS64 KMAF 030928 FFAMAF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY... .AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. TXZ047-048-052-053-063-070-031030- /O.CAN.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070803T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BORDEN-SCURRY-HOWARD-MITCHELL-GLASSCOCK-REAGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAIL...SNYDER...BIG SPRING... COLORADO CITY...GARDEN CITY...BIG LAKE 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING SHIFTING TO THE WEST. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 AM CDT. $$ NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-057>062-067>069-074-075- 079>082-258-032100- /O.EXT.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070804T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-ANDREWS-MARTIN-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- WARD-CRANE-UPTON-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD... CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL... SEMINOLE...LAMESA...ANDREWS...STANTON...VAN HORN...PECOS... MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...MONAHANS... CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...ALPINE...FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO... MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...SANDERSON... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 428 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007 /328 AM MDT FRI AUG 3 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. IN TEXAS...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND... PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR... WARD AND WINKLER. * THROUGH 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING * DEEP MOISTURE AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS AND EVEN CITY STREETS MAY RUN RAPIDLY WITH DEEP WATER. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
000 WGUS64 KMAF 032230 FFAMAF FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 530 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007 ...LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY EVENING... .ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AFTERNOON HEATING...AND THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS PROVIDED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045-046-050-051-057>062-067>069-074-075- 079>082-258-040000- /O.CON.KMAF.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-070804T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-ANDREWS-MARTIN-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- WARD-CRANE-UPTON-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS- PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD... CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL... SEMINOLE...LAMESA...ANDREWS...STANTON...VAN HORN...PECOS... MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...MONAHANS... CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...ALPINE...FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO... MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...SANDERSON... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS 530 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007 /430 PM MDT FRI AUG 3 2007/ ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY. IN TEXAS...ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND... PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR... WARD AND WINKLER. * UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING * DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. * DRAWS AND ARROYOS AND EVEN CITY STREETS MAY RUN RAPIDLY WITH DEEP WATER. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 1, 4:51 AM CDT, 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 4:51 AM CDT, 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007
.DISCUSSION...
IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
A COMPLICATED SITUATION PRESENTS ITSELF THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS WITHIN THIS FEATURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 5 CM RANGE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATER TODAY MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT AS A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CHIHUAHUA ROTATES NORTH...AND THIS
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVEMENT AND
EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS. FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST...DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRANSLATING WEST OVER THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DECLINE. AS WESTERN
ZONES SAW SOME GOOD RAINS YESTERDAY...FFG VALUES REMAIN LOW...AND
GIVEN THE OVERALL SETUP THERE IS A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM THE MARFA PLATEAU NORTH ACROSS THE DAVIS
AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WE HAVE RECONFIGURED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO GENERALLY WEST OF A QUEEN NM...ALPINE TX...TO LAJITAS TX
LINE THROUGH 1000 UTC TOMORROW.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
APPARENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN HAND ANALYSIS OVER WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TODAY. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A MODEST LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IN TURN SHOULD AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE GFS SHOWS
THIS SCENARIO THE BEST...ALBEIT AFFECTED GREATLY BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. NEVERTHELESS...WE EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO TRANSLATE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...CONSEQUENTLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME ANOTHER DAY AND STRETCHED NORTHEAST
DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THIS EXPECTED CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT
OF HEAVY RAINS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTING WEST
IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND REMAIN OVER AND NEAR
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS
COULD SHUNT MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK OVER AT LEAST THE WESTERN
CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED.
THE NAM WAS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING AS ITS QPF FIELDS
DONT MATCH UP WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. WE HAVE INCREASED QPF OVER
HPC GUIDANCE TODAY OVER THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS GIVEN
THE ABOVE REASONING. DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWFA MAY
LIMIT QPF A BIT MORE THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...AND WEVE
LOWERED AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE SITUATION BUT MAY BE OVERPLAYING THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO
TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED HPC QPF DOWN A BIT. THE GREATEST POPS
WERE MORE OR LESS DRAWN TO FIT THE GREATEST QPF... WITH HEAVY RAIN
INDICATED WHERE 6HR QPF EXCEEDS 0.30 INCHES. PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MODULATE TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH
HIGHS STAYING FAIRLY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND LOWS TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THEREAFTER...A WARMUP IS
INDICATED THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDLEVELS WARM...BUT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAY TAKE A DEGREE OR THREE OFF WHAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS. LASTLY...THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS...ALTHOUGH WE DID ADJUST FOR MODEL NOCTURNAL WIND BIASES AND
GAP WINDS THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ELEVATED FLOWS CONTINUE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM ABOVE PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM PAST BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK. AS RUNOFF FROM RAINS
YESTERDAY ARE ROUTED DOWN TRIBUTARIES AND INTO THE RIVER...THESE
ELEVATED FLOWS SHOULD PERSIST TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
GAUGES TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE EXPECTED AS
RUNOFF FROM RAINS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ROUTED INTO THE RIO
GRANDE...WITH THE NET RESULT BEING LEVELS NEAR OR PERHAPS A BIT
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 87 69 81 68 / 30 40 50 40
CARLSBAD NM 86 69 84 68 / 60 40 40 30
DRYDEN TX 93 72 90 71 / 40 30 50 60
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 71 87 67 / 50 30 60 60
GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 60 79 61 / 70 50 40 30
HOBBS NM 85 67 82 66 / 50 40 40 30
MARFA TX 80 66 79 63 / 70 50 40 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 88 68 82 68 / 40 40 50 40
ODESSA TX 88 68 84 68 / 40 40 60 40
WINK TX 93 70 88 68 / 50 40 60 50
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MDT
THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
EDDY COUNTY.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO
6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...MARFA
PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
&&
49/70Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 4:39 AM CDT, 40 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 439 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-020945- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 439 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /339 AM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE THE STRONGEST. HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY STILL A CONCERN AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE PRESIDIO VALLEY AND MARFA PLATEAU NORTH INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REMAIN HIGH AND TRIBUTARIES ARE LIKELY RUNNING WITH WATER. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND OR TONIGHT COULD PROLONG FLOODING CONCERNS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS RAIN DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The office that day
Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 8:30 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | MAF | Presidio | 15 hr |
| Jul 31, 11:24 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | MAF | Brewster | 21 hr |
| Aug 1, 10:06 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MAF | Brewster | 10 hr |
| Aug 1, 10:17 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | MAF | Brewster | 10 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in Texas, 2007Flash Flood Watches in New Mexico, 2007Every flash flood watch in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.