Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
435 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH IMPACT EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE SEVERE CONVECTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE GULFO DE
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS TO
DRIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN SONORA TODAY BEFORE LIFTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT.  A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WAS INDICATED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM COAHUILA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS...WITH SOME DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR NOTED BETWEEN THIS BELT
AND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.  CLEARING SKIES OVER THE BIG BEND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED
IN A COLLAPSE OF TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE TOP OF THE
PBL...AND THIS IN TURN HAS PROMOTED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM NORTH OF VAN HORN TO NEAR CARLSBAD.  THIS
AREA IS BEING TICKLED BY A SUBTLE UPPER SPEED MAX EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.  DEEP LAYER
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMALLY INDIRECT ASCENDING BRANCH OF THIS
JET WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE...
CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN DEEP CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO RENEW OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA LATER TODAY.  UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICAL FORCING AS SHOWN VIA DIV Q PROGS INCREASES OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUFFICIENT
THERMODYNAMIC POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE IN PLACE AS INSOLATION AND
MOISTURE COMBINE FOR MLCAPES AROUND 15 KJ/KG RANGE IN AN AREA
STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND NORTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND
SPREADING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL...KINEMATIC PARAMETERS SEEM TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR COULD BE BETTER.  FORECAST 0-1 AND 0-3KM
SREF HELICITY PROGS ALSO SUGGEST A MARGINAL ROTATIONAL SETUP...BUT
IF STORMS CAN MOVE A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN WHAT IS FORECAST AND
/OR MANAGE TO TAP INTO SOME PREEXISTING BAROCLINIC VORTICITY ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE.
HAVE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...BUT WILL MENTION TORNADOES IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...TRAINING STORMS AND AMPLE
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 3 CM...SOME 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL...
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA THIS
EVENING.  ROBUST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LIKEWISE INDICATED
AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO OVER 50 KTS AND ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA 850 HPA MIXING RATIOS OF 10 TO 12 G/KG.  AS THE STEERING FLOW
BACKS TO NEARLY MERIDIONAL TONIGHT...TRAINING OF ECHOES WILL BECOME
MORE OF AN ISSUE.  WHILE THE THREAT IS THERE CERTAINLY FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING...THE OVERALL DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST A
MARGINAL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.  WILL HOLD OF ON A
WATCH ATTM AND WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT.

MODEL NUMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AND
A CONSENSUS HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.  SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE
STRONGLY FROM HPC QPF PROGS THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASES IN QPF
OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THE WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH A DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  A TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN ARIZONA.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CWA BY 00Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY WILL MOVE OUT OF MEXICO AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING.  THE
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS OUTLINED IN THE SPC DISCUSSIONS.  LAPSE RATES
OF 7 TO 8 DEG C/KM...DEEP SHEAR VECTORS OF 40 KTS AND LIFTED INDICES
OF -2 TO -6 DEGREES WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  BY
LATE SUNDAY...FEEL THE MAIN THREATS WILL BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOOD SITUATION RATHER THAN THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER MONDAY.  GFS BREAKS OUT LOW POPS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO
OUR NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AT THIS
POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AGAIN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS LATE IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT AREA TERMINALS/ROUTES THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z THIS MORNING.  EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL AFFECT KCNM AND TWB ROUTE 194 THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD AS
WELL.  EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING
BEFORE CONVECTION RENEWS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREADS EAST AND NORTH.  WIND GUSTS AOA 30 KTS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1SM OR LESS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
AND ROUTES BEGINNING AROUND 20Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
LASTLY...LLWS POSSIBLE AT KMAF AND KFST BEGINNING AROUND 02Z AND
PERSISTING UNTIL 08Z OR SO AS A 50KT PLUS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              71  58  71  59  /  50  80  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                74  52  73  52  /  40  50  40  20
DRYDEN TX                  74  60  75  60  /  40  50  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  57  74  57  /  50  60  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  47  67  46  /  30  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   71  57  73  53  /  60  70  50  30
MARFA TX                   74  47  72  46  /  40  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  57  72  55  /  60  80  50  40
ODESSA TX                  73  57  72  57  /  60  80  50  40
WINK TX                    74  58  77  60  /  50  70  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

70/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
439 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-240945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
439 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007 /339 AM MDT FRI MAR 23 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.  IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF
WEST TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS PRESENT.  THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  HAIL TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A SEMINOLE...KERMIT...TO FORT STOCKTON
LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE ACTIVATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGES SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
936 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     HAIL             MCDONALD                33.14N 103.32W
03/23/2007  E0.88 INCH       LEA                NM   PUBLIC

            1/2 MILE EAST OF MCDONALD

&&

AKL