Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 022154
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
450 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

NMC015-TXC109-022345-
EDDY-CULBERSON-
350 PM MDT WED MAY 2 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT 
   (645 PM CDT) FOR CULBERSON AND EDDY COUNTIES...

AT 350 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

A VERY SLOWLY MOVING THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARTESIA
AT 352 PM MDT HAS LIKELY PRODUCED IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES OF 
RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE DRAWS IN WESTERN EDDY COUNTY. RUNOFF FROM THIS VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY DRAIN INTO NORTH SEVEN RIVERS AND FOURMILE
DRAW. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED... WHICH WILL RESULT IN 
AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN EDDY COUNTY THROUGH 
EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES
HAVE ALSO PRODUCED MORE THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE
LAST HOUR.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING(900 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING) FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.

LAT...LON 3254 10381 3253 10372 3202 10372 3200 10403
      3111 10411 3068 10491 3200 10492 3202 10483
      3259 10484 3296 10481 3298 10380

$$

05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND EJECT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY.
AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AND DECENT /30-40KT/
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  PLEASE SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 210 VALID THROUGH 03/02Z FOR LATEST
DETAILS. ALSO...DUE TO THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WILL
MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENT IN EFFECT THROUGH 03/06Z.

.LONG TERM...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WEST
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AIDING MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST
TEXAS.  LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...WILL CARRY CHANCES
FOR DRYLINE RELATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  SHOULD THE CLOSED LOW MEANDER
TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND...A SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY GULF
MOISTURE FETCH INTO WEST TEXAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
GROWING CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS EARLIER
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              60  89  65  92  /  30  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  90  60  93  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  91  66  94  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  91  65  95  /  30  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  85  57  86  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   58  90  62  91  /  40  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  85  47  88  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  87  64  92  /  40  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  88  64  92  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    60  94  62  98  /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY
     COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REAGAN...SCURRY...UPTON...
     WARD...WINKLER.

&&

01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-030815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
315 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007 /215 PM MDT WED MAY 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...WILL RESULT
IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ051-021700-
MARTIN-
1054 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR MARTIN COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF COURTNEY AT 1054 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  THIS STORM IS GOING UP AND DOWN
IN
INTENSITY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1144 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

TXZ075-021745-
PECOS-
1144 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY.

AT 1144 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE
10 AROUND 18 MILES WEST OF BAKERSFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THIS STRONG STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WEST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2007

NMZ027-028-022100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
153 PM MDT WED MAY 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 15 MILES WEST OF WHITES CITY AT 153
PM MDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS LIKELY CAPABLE
OF PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED...SO PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD STAY
ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION SHOULD A WARNING BE
ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

05