Flash Flood Warning 162, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
155 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CIRCULATION NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
WAS THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
TEXAS...AND PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO. SUSPECT
ENHANCEMENTS WITHIN THIS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WERE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CIRCULATING AROUND...OR UNDER THE RIDGE. NOT MUCH IS
INHERENTLY OBVIOUS WITH THE ABOVE... EXCEPT THAT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DUE TO
THESE WAVES INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE...TROPICAL AIRMASS AND
PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE CWA.

WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE
PENCHANT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE...FOR THE MOST
PART...AT NIGHT.  THIS AS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE OVER
THE BIG BEND REGION/LOWER TRANS PECOS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
HEADING WEST...IF NOT NORTHWEST...OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...A GOOD
DEAL OF HEATING WAS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
STORMS THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  PWATS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE WATCH
AREA...WHICH WILL BE CHANGED SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE BREWSTER COUNTY
AGAIN.  THIS AS MOST OF THE DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPEARS
WILL REMAIN JUST EAST...OR SOUTH...OF THE BIG BEND REGION AND THERE
WAS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY TUESDAY.  WILL ALSO
MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ON THE RIO GRANDE AS ANY
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...OR IT/S TRIBUTARIES...
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE CURRENT ELEVATED FLOWS/FLOODING.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE
CWA FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO/
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TO EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO/CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MORNING.  THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT
THE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE WEST...THAT IS IN THE
WATCH AREA...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.  SINCE
PWATS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING IN THE ZONES THERE
TOO.  JUST THINK WHAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THESE
AREAS.  WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE...OR SLIGHTLY LOWER...FOR MIN
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO A LOW OVER THE WESTERN CWA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
WEAK THEREFORE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER.

BY THE WEEKEND...A HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
WILL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN CWA. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A DECREASE
TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CWA DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND
OROGRAPHICAL LIFTING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED POPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AS MINOR DISTURBANCES
MOVE WEST AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG DOWN THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS TROUGH COULD BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE WESTERN CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY CONTINUE TO BE TOO
HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND LOW HEIGHTS KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
COOL. A WARMUP IS SLATED TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS RATHER WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST AND MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THERMAL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA. MADE VERY FEW
CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION GRIDS AS THEY PRETTY MUCH LOOKED ON
TRACK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND IT/S TRIBUTARIES
RESULTED IN ELEVATED FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE...WITH CASTOLON...
JOHNSON RANCH AND BOQUILLAS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SINCE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FLOWS...OR FLOODING...WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  83  69  87  /  40  50  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  85  68  86  /  50  40  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  72  90  72  90  /  50  50  60  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  88  69  88  /  50  60  60  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  81  62  80  /  60  40  30  30
HOBBS NM                   69  84  68  88  /  40  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   63  81  62  80  /  60  40  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  85  70  88  /  40  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  72  85  70  89  /  40  60  40  20
WINK TX                    73  90  70  90  /  50  60  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY
     COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
     AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...BIG
     BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

67/54

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
133 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-021845-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
133 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007 /1233 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH
HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW...AND WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.  HEAVY RAIN IS STILL A CONCERN AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE BIG BEND REGION AND PRESIDIO
VALLEY...NORTH THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU...TO
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TOO.  HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE REMAIN HIGH AND TRIBUTARIES ARE
LIKELY RUNNING WITH WATER.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT COULD PROLONG FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON
HOW THIS RAIN DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCAL
OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

TXZ051-052-062-063-020530-
HOWARD-MARTIN-GLASSCOCK-MIDLAND-
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR MARTIN...NORTHERN MIDLAND...
NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK AND WESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES.

A LARGE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF TARZAN AT
1130 PM CDT. LITTLE MOVEMENT IS NOTED. THIS STORM CONTAINS
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND MAY HAVE DOWNBURST WINDS TO 55 MPH. ALSO OTHER
STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS MIDLAND...HOWARD...AND
GLASSCOCK COUNTIES. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING RAINS AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 45 MPH. ALSO DRIVERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY WITHIN THESE STRONG STORMS.

PEOPLE IN MARTIN...NORTHERN MIDLAND...NORTHWESTERN GLASSCOCK AND
WESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MIDLAND AND
STANTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.