Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Little Rock, AR

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT MAR 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THEN CURVING
BACK INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AND RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE DAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRAGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS AROUND MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY REACHING EASTERN ARKANSAS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH ALL RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE TOO STABLE INITIALLY FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...EAST OF A LINE FROM ARKADELPHIA TO MORRILTON TO MARSHALL TO
MOUNTAIN HOME. A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS NO LATER THAN MIDDAY AND SWEEP EAST. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN. THE WIND STRUCTURE FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NOT
IDEAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT BUT THEY CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE
LATER IN THE DAY ALLOWING THAT PART OF THE STATE TO HEAT UP AND
DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD DAYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF
SATURDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN
CONTROL. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR RETURNING TO THE NATURAL STATE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF AIR WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE
ANCHORED ON THE WEST BY A DEEP EASTERN PACIFIC TROF AND TO THE EAST
BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH DAY TIME HIGHS DROPPING
BACK TO LEVELS MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY TO MID MARCH RATHER THAN
EARLY APRIL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR IS
FORECAST TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN...
ONLY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

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