Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HAD TO BUMP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EARLY...BASED ON TRENDS...& CIRRUS
SHIELD FROM ERIN NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PARTS OF AR. THIS PRODUCED HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 105 FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE IN CENTRAL & SOUTHERN SPOTS...SO
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PARTS OF AR.
OTHERWISE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR PRESSURE TROUGH...QUITE DIFFUSE
OVER NORTHERN AR...WITH A NE WIND FLOW & A BIT LOWER DEW POINT
TEMPS TO THE NE OVER MO. CU FIELD HAS FORMED...& MAY STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET...SO HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD SAG A
BIT MORE OVERNIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN A BIT LOW WITH 1.40
INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF ERIN CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER NW TX...AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE. AMOUNT OF ENERGY IT WILL SPREAD EAST IS STILL A
QUESTION MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HAS GREATEST CHANCE OF POP...30-50% ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF ANY ENERGY FROM ERIN...& THE WEAK
BOUNDARY ACROSS AR. THIS LOOKS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS SUNDAY WITH
GREATEST POP. BY SUNDAY...THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN PLAINS LIFTS
NE...WHILE THE MODELS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH AMOUNT OF ENERGY
SPREADING TO SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ERIN. GFS SPREADS SOME
EAST...BUT THEN RETROGRADES THE CENTER BACK TO THE SW. NAM PULLS
MUCH OF IT FARTHER NW-N OF ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY...A BIT CLOSER
SUNDAY...BUT WITH OVERALL UNCERTAIN AFFECTS. SO HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE CAT ON SATURDAY...WHILE SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK TO LOWER 90S NORTH...MID & UPPER 90S CENTRAL & SOUTH.
ALSO...THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS MORE EAST...WITH THE CENTER CLOSER
TO THE SE U.S. THIS WILL ALSO HELP CUT TEMPS. FOR MONDAY...SURFACE
& UPPER RIDGING WILL BE TO THE EAST...WHILE A SE-S FLOW KEEPS
MOISTURE LEVELS UP OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL COME BACK CLOSER TO
NORMALS...WITH NOT AS MANY TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S. AFTERNOON &
EARLY EVENING POPS WILL ALSO BE BACK IN THE FORECAST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. HAS WEATHER
SYSTEM COMING CLOSER TO AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BY EARLY TUESDAY...HURRICANE DEAN WILL BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE
AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RELATIVELY HIGHER MEAN RH
WILL BE OVER OUR AREA AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
TOO WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...YET STILL HOT
AND HUMID.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  94  72  91 /  20  30  30  30
CAMDEN AR         73  95  72  93 /  20  20  30  30
HARRISON AR       72  91  69  89 /  20  40  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  93  71  93 /  10  30  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  95  74  95 /  10  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     76  97  74  95 /  10  20  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      72  92  70  92 /  20  30  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  92  70  89 /  20  40  30  30
NEWPORT AR        76  97  74  94 /  20  30  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     75  96  74  95 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  92  72  90 /  20  30  30  30
SEARCY AR         75  95  73  92 /  20  20  30  30
STUTTGART AR      76  95  74  94 /  10  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PIKE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1040 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1040 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
ARKANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM CDT. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 105.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN
RECENT DAYS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE RANGE OF 100 TO 104 DEGREES
OVER MANY AREAS. SOME AREAS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...WILL REACH A HEAT INDEX OF 105 DEGREES OR MORE.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN AND THE APPROACH
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

38